Florida Poll Results: 10-31-2012

Results from Florida Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 549 likely voters in Florida October 30, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         Governor Romney leads President Obama by three percentage points in Florida, 50 to 47 percent.

·         Democrat Bill Nelson leads Connie Mack by three percentage points in the Florida Senate race, 49 to 46 percent.

·         A majority of Florida likely voters (51 percent) do not approve of President Obama’s job performance. 43 percent approve of President Obama’s performance.

·         Similarly, half (50 percent) of Florida likely voters think the United States of America is headed in the wrong direction. 39 percent think the country is headed in the right direction.

·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Question 3: If the election for President of the United States were held today whom would you vote for? [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]	Florida Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Democrat Barack Obama	47	44	49	80	8	44
Republican Mitt Romney	50	54	46	15	92	50
Undecided	4	2	5	5	0	6

Question 4: If the election for Senate were held today, would you vote for Bill Nelson or Connie Mack? [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]	Florida Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Democrat Bill Nelson	49	44	52	84	11	39
Republican Connie Mack	46	48	44	11	86	49
Undecided	5	8	3	4	3	12

Question 5: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?	Florida Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Yes	43	35	50	78	8	30
No	51	56	48	18	91	53
Undecided	6	9	3	4	1	17

Question 6: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?	Florida Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Right Direction	39	33	44	68	9	30
Wrong Direction	50	55	46	17	89	53
Undecided	10	12	9	14	2	17

Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?	Florida Voters
Yes	100
No	0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections?	Florida Voters
Very unlikely	0
Unlikely	0
Somewhat unlikely	0
Somewhat likely	2
Likely	6
Very likely	92

                                                        

Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]	Florida Voters
Democrat	43
Republican	35
Independent or in another party	22

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?	Florida Voters
White/Caucasian	63
African-American	13
Hispanic	20
Asian	1
Other	3

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?	Florida Voters
Catholic	31
Protestant/Other Christian	45
Jewish	8
Muslim	2
Other	14

Question 10:  What is your age?	Florida Voters
18-29	17
30-49	28
50-64	34
65+	20

Question 7: What is your gender?	Florida Voters
Male	46
Female	54