Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Florida Poll Results: 10-31-2012


Results from Florida Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 549 likely voters in Florida October 30, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         Governor Romney leads President Obama by three percentage points in Florida, 50 to 47 percent.

·         Democrat Bill Nelson leads Connie Mack by three percentage points in the Florida Senate race, 49 to 46 percent.

·         A majority of Florida likely voters (51 percent) do not approve of President Obama’s job performance. 43 percent approve of President Obama’s performance.

·         Similarly, half (50 percent) of Florida likely voters think the United States of America is headed in the wrong direction. 39 percent think the country is headed in the right direction.


·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Question 3: If the election for President of the United States were held today whom would you vote for? [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
Florida
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Democrat Barack Obama
47
44
49
80
8
44
Republican Mitt Romney
50
54
46
15
92
50
Undecided
4
2
5
5
0
6

Question 4: If the election for Senate were held today, would you vote for Bill Nelson or Connie Mack? [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
Florida
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Democrat Bill Nelson
49
44
52
84
11
39
Republican Connie Mack
46
48
44
11
86
49
Undecided
5
8
3
4
3
12

Question 5: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
Florida
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
43
35
50
78
8
30
No
51
56
48
18
91
53
Undecided
6
9
3
4
1
17

Question 6: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
Florida
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
39
33
44
68
9
30
Wrong Direction
50
55
46
17
89
53
Undecided
10
12
9
14
2
17







Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
          Florida Voters
Yes
100
No
0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections?
          Florida Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
2
Likely
6
Very likely
                      92                    
                                                        
Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
          Florida Voters
Democrat
43
Republican
35
Independent or in another party
22

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?
Florida Voters
White/Caucasian
63
African-American
13
Hispanic
20
Asian
1
Other
3

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
Florida Voters
Catholic
31
Protestant/Other Christian
45
Jewish
8
Muslim
2
Other
14

Question 10:  What is your age?
Florida Voters
18-29
17
30-49
28
50-64
34
65+
20

Question 7: What is your gender?
Florida Voters
Male
46
Female
54
                                                                                                                                                                                   

5 comments:

  1. Wow, D+ 8 sample and Romney still winning by three. This should mean a strong win for Connie Mack and Mitt Romney in Florida.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. who would believe a poll that has 8% more Democrats, 13% African Americans and 20% Hispanics would have Romney up by 3. This country is polarized, the poll doesn't make sense. I know you right wingers want to believe this bogus poll but it doesn't add up.

      Delete
  2. Bobby Kittleberger is absolutely correct. These numbers are very strong for Romney. There is no data anywhere that indicates the FL electorate is 43% D 35% R. We've noticed this rank democrat oversampling in nearly every poll.

    We do, however, unskew these polls to get at the true nature of what's happening in each state. To keep track yourself, check out our unskewed poll database here: http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/09/lme-presidential-poll-tracker-database.html

    ReplyDelete
  3. Kaplan, once again, please explain your sample. Why are you using junk samples you know won't be accurate to actual turnout..

    It's off the charts.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thank you for so carefully tracking all of the Presidential candidates, so that those required to get 15% to be in the "Official" Presidential Debates would know if they qualify.

    ReplyDelete