Results
from Florida Likely Voter Survey
|
Methodology
|
Gravis
Marketing conducted an automated survey of 1182 likely voters in Florida
October 24, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8% and higher for
subgroups.
Results
shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups.
All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest
whole percentage.
The
questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this
report. Results only include respondents
who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very
likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups
for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout
models from previous elections.
The poll
was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a
non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida.
Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com
|
Key Findings
|
·
Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by a single
percentage point, 50 percent to 49 percent.
Only 2 percent of voters were undecided in this survey.
·
The gender gap between the candidates is
smaller than seen in both previous surveys conducted by Gravis and by other
polling firms. In this survey, Romney holds a 2 percent lead with men (50 to 48
percent), while the race is tied among women at 49 percent in this survey.
·
President Obama has a net negative job
performance rating of 6 percentage points. 44 percent approve of his
performance, while half (50 percent) do not approve of his performance.
·
Just under half (49 percent) of Florida likely
voters think the United States is headed in the wrong direction. 43 percent
think the country is headed in the right direction.
·
|
Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of
the Country
|
|
Question 8: If the election for President of
the United States were held today who would you vote for?
|
Florida
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
|
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
|
Barack
Obama
|
49
|
48
|
49
|
86
|
8
|
42
|
|
Mitt
Romney
|
50
|
50
|
49
|
14
|
92
|
52
|
|
Undecided
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
|
Question 9:
Do you approve of President
Obama’s job performance?
|
Florida
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
|
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
|
Yes
|
44
|
44
|
44
|
78
|
8
|
37
|
|
No
|
50
|
50
|
49
|
17
|
89
|
52
|
|
Undecided
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
3
|
11
|
|
Question 10:
Do you think the United States
of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
|
Florida
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
|
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
|
Right
Direction
|
43
|
43
|
43
|
75
|
6
|
39
|
|
Wrong
Direction
|
49
|
51
|
48
|
16
|
89
|
52
|
|
Undecided
|
8
|
6
|
9
|
9
|
5
|
10
|
|
Screeners & Demographics
|
|
Question 1:
Are you registered to vote?
|
Florida
Voters
|
|
Yes
|
100
|
|
No
|
0
|
|
Question 2:
How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?
|
Florida
Voters
|
|
Very
unlikely
|
0
|
|
Unlikely
|
0
|
|
Somewhat
unlikely
|
0
|
|
Somewhat
likely
|
3
|
|
Likely
|
6
|
|
Very
likely
|
91
|
|
Question 3: What is your political party
affiliation? [FIRST TWO CHOICES
ROTATED]
|
Florida
Voters
|
|
Democrat
|
43
|
|
Republican
|
35
|
|
Independent
or in another party
|
22
|
|
Question 4:
What race do you identify yourself as?
|
Florida Voters
|
|
White/Caucasian
|
63
|
|
African-American
|
13
|
|
Hispanic
|
20
|
|
Asian
|
1
|
|
Other
|
3
|
|
Question 5: Which of the following best
represents your religious affiliation?
|
Florida Voters
|
|
Catholic
|
32
|
|
Protestant/Other
Christian
|
48
|
|
Jewish
|
6
|
|
Muslim
|
2
|
|
Other
|
12
|
|
Question 6: What
is your age?
|
Florida Voters
|
|
18-29
|
16
|
|
30-49
|
30
|
|
50-64
|
32
|
|
65+
|
22
|
|
Question 7: What is your gender?
|
Florida Voters
|
|
Male
|
47
|
|
Female
|
53
|
