Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Florida Poll Shows Romney and Obama...



Results from Florida Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 1182 likely voters in Florida October 24, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by a single percentage point, 50 percent to 49 percent.  Only 2 percent of voters were undecided in this survey.

·         The gender gap between the candidates is smaller than seen in both previous surveys conducted by Gravis and by other polling firms. In this survey, Romney holds a 2 percent lead with men (50 to 48 percent), while the race is tied among women at 49 percent in this survey.

·         President Obama has a net negative job performance rating of 6 percentage points. 44 percent approve of his performance, while half (50 percent) do not approve of his performance.

·         Just under half (49 percent) of Florida likely voters think the United States is headed in the wrong direction. 43 percent think the country is headed in the right direction.

Before rounding: Romney 49.7%, Obama 48.8%, Undecided 1.6%

·       


Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country
  
Question 8: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
Florida
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Barack Obama
49
48
49
86
8
42
Mitt Romney
50
50
49
14
92
52
Undecided
2
1
2
0
0
6

Question 9:

 Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
Florida
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
44
44
44
78
8
37
No
50
50
49
17
89
52
Undecided
6
6
6
6
3
11

Question 10: 
 Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
Florida
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
43
43
43
75
6
39
Wrong Direction
49
51
48
16
89
52
Undecided
8
6
9
9
5
10

 


Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
          Florida Voters
Yes
100
No
0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?
Florida Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
3
Likely
6
Very likely
91
                                                        
Question 3: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
Florida 
Voters
Democrat
43
Republican
35
Independent or in another party
22

Question 4:  What race do you identify yourself as?
Florida Voters
White/Caucasian
63
African-American
13
Hispanic
20
Asian
1
Other
3

Question 5: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
Florida Voters
Catholic
32
Protestant/Other Christian
48
Jewish
6
Muslim
2
Other
12

Question 6:  What is your age?
Florida Voters
18-29
16
30-49
30
50-64
32
65+
22

Question 7: What is your gender?
Florida Voters
Male
47
Female
53
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

18 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. I don't know and 8% more Democrats sampling in Fl is a stretch and Romney still wins by a Point.There are other statistics in the data that are if'y?And Romney still wins>guess they don't won't Obama to be to sad and let down till at least Midnight Nov 7th 2012.Obama could still win this election with Ohio,my friends up there say Obama's had offices(120 !) open in the state for 2 years and a lot of toss up states have been like this!Chavez in Ven. also operates this way i here.

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  2. D + 8 sample? Really? Florida is not made up of 45% democrat.

    Independents breaking by 10 for Romney and stealing a 15% share of Dems while holding a 92% share of Repubs equals a solid Romney victory in Florida... if election day breaks down like the above, book it for Romney.

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  3. And this is with a D+8 sampling... Romney's up by over 5%. Stop trying to skew your polls like this.

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  4. I would like to echo Ryan and Brett's comments. D+8? This is a massive lead for Romney in Florida. What a ridiculous sample.

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    Replies
    1. want to see some innaccurate numbers reflecting actual population, check out the percentage of ppl from the age groups above... that's hilarious.

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  5. Doug why release a poll you know has a bad sample. It's called selection bias. Show any evidence that Florida is +8 democrat. And don't give me any crap about it's a random sample. A random sample still has to represent the larger population being sampled. Basic statistics.

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  6. It's obvious republicans just don't volunteer at the same rate to do polls as democrats.

    Doug should know this.

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  7. According to the state, there's a five point registration advantage for Democrats in Florida, so D+ 8 isn't beyond crazy. Plus, there's no gender gap, which is highly unusual. In my opinion, I have no opinion.

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    Replies
    1. http://election.dos.state.fl.us/nvra/affiliation.asp

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    2. You will sew on election day. The ones that show up to vote will make it + 2 democrat. Romney will take Florida by at least 4. Mark it

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  8. 6% more women then men in this sample and no gender gap? Unless Florida is different than most states, there is usually around 2% more women voting than men...anyhow this is a weird sample

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    Replies
    1. Sorry, I meant that Romney's tied with women. It seems unlikely, but I'm not a woman, so who knows?

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  9. Regarding gender gap - don't forget all the senors living in FL. By age 80 women outnumber men 7-1.

    D +8% is overstated. Sept 2012 FL stats show Dems at 40.0% and Republicans at 35.8%, or a difference of D +4.2%. So, adjust for that and that gives Romney a +2.8% in this poll. If independents (22%) give Romney a 10 % edge, then add another 2.2% for Romney. That gives Romney about a 5.0% advantage in FL, which is what the last Rasmussen poll in FL shows - 5%.

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  10. Are you serious? 23% of the state is Hispanic and you are indicating 20% of them will vote? Particularly given that of registered voters in 2012 in the state of Florida, as of 10/1/12, only 13.5% of them are Hispanic. Seems like as Obama would say, "the math doesn't work!" Playing with the numbers to make Obama look better...disgusting!

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  11. This poll makes no Spence at all. In this election there are few democrats voting for Romney. No gender gap I doubt that. Gravis has serious problems and they should be removed.

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