Sunday, October 14, 2012

Gravis Marketing Colorado Presidential Poll Shows Obama and Romney....





Colorado Results
For 10/5/2012 – 10/11/2012
Executive Summary
Following the debates, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm conducted a survey of 2,089 likely voters in Colorado on October 5th– October 11th regarding their likely vote for a given presidential candidate.  The poll carries a margin of error of 2.2%.   
The recent results give Obama a 48.4% to 46.0% lead, with 5.6% of likely voters still undecided or voting for another candidate.  The 2.4% Obama lead is a 2.1% decline from where it stood in September.  Gravis Marketing conducted a previous poll this month right after the first debate, which gave Romney a 49.4% to 45.9% advantage.  The difference between the most recent poll and the poll immediately following the debate (total time frame for that poll was 30 minutes after completion of the debate) is thought to be due to the initial debate reaction.  The most recent results indicate the debate bump, although still there, is moderating somewhat. 
A full reporting of the results and cross tabulations follows.    September Poll October Post Debate Poll








Party
Percent of total
Other
39.9%
Republican
31.8%
Democrat
28.2%
Race
White
80.1%
Hispanic
10.0%
Other
9.9%
Religious affiliation
Protestant
42.5%
Not affiliated
31.2%
Catholic
20.3%
Jewish
3.9%
Muslim
2.1%
Age
18-29
17.0%
30-49
39.9%
50-64
29.1%
65+
14.0%
Sex
Men
49.5%
Women
50.5%
President
Obama
48.4%
Romney
46.0%
Other
5.6%
Approve of Obama?
Disapprove
48.6%
Approve
42.1%
Other
9.3%




U.S. right direction?
Wrong
51.4%
Right
38.3%
Other
10.3%

Survey Questions

1.  Are you registered to vote?  (Yes, No)
2.  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections? (Very unlikely, Unlikely, Somewhat unlikely, Somewhat likely, Likely, Very likely)
3. In which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself a member of? (Democrat, Republican, independent or minority party)
4. What race do you identify yourself as? (White/Caucasian, African-American, Hispanic, Asian, Other)
5. Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation? (Roman Catholic, Protestant/other non-denominational Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Other/no affiliation)
6. How old are you? (18-29, 30-49, 50-64, Over 65)
7. What is your Gender? (Male, Female)
8. If the presidential election were held today, whom would you vote for? (Very likely Obama, Likely Obama, Somewhat likely Obama, Undecided, Somewhat likely Romney, Likely Romney, Very likely Romney)
9.  Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
10.  Do you think the United States is headed in the right direction?

Note: the statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions for the 2012 General Election.