Friday, October 26, 2012

Gravis Marketing Nevada Presidential Poll


Gravis Public Opinion Poll

Results from Nevada Likely Voter Survey

www.gravispolls.com


Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 955 likely voters in Nevada October 24, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.2% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         President Obama leads Governor Romney by a single percentage point in Nevada, 50 to 49 percent.

·         Both candidates receive over 90 percent of the vote from their own political party. Governor Romney leads among independents in this survey by a margin of 68 percent to 32 percent.

·         Half of Nevada voters (50 percent) do not approve of President Obama’s job performance, while 45 percent approve of his performance.

·         42 percent of Nevada voters think the country is headed in the right direction, while 48 percent of Nevada voters think it is headed in the wrong direction.






                                                                                                                                        


Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Question 8:
If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
Nevada
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Barack Obama
50
46
53
90
9
30
Mitt Romney
49
51
47
9
90
65
Undecided
2
3
0
0
1
5

Question 9:
Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
Nevada
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
45
43
48
84
7
28
No
50
53
47
10
91
65
Undecided
5
4
5
6
2
7

Question 10:
Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
Nevada
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
42
38
46
79
9
19
Wrong Direction
48
52
44
11
86
64
Undecided
10
9
10
11
5
17













Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
         Nevada Voters
Yes
100
No
0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections?
         Nevada Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
2
Likely
5
Very likely
94
                                                        
Question 3: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
         Nevada Voters
Democrat
45
Republican
36
Independent or in another party
19

Question 4:  What race do you identify yourself as?
Nevada Voters
White/Caucasian
63
African-American
13
Hispanic
20
Asian
1
Other
3

Question 5: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
Nevada Voters
Catholic
28
Protestant/Other Christian
48
Jewish
3
Muslim
1
Other
21

Question 6:  What is your age?
Nevada Voters
18-29
8
30-49
38
50-64
34
65+
20

Question 7: What is your gender?
Nevada Voters
Male
46
Female
54
                                                                                                                                                                                  

12 comments:

  1. Dem+9? Really? Why don't you use D+25? That way, the pres. would be up at least by 5 points and thus beyond the margin of error.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Don't be silly, Beardmaster. The Nevada state GOP has been in disarray all year, which is why the Romney campaign bypassed the state GOP apparatus and set up his own state mechanism.

    Democrats have led in voter registration and early voting there, and of 33 Nevada polls completed since April 1st Romney has been tied in two and led none.

    With all this in mind, it's hardly surprising that more people are self-reporting identification with the Democratic party during a poll of Nevada.

    You can see a full list of Nevada polls here:

    http://www.inademocracy.com/polls.html?state=nv

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nevada sec of state final stats 2012 dems+6 every poll has oversampled dems ind.+Latino by 2+dems and 8-10 latino. Latinos are about 10 0/0 of the electorate. Even though they're 26 of the general population

      Delete
  3. There are more Democrats than Republicans in Nevada.

    http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/voter-registration-numbers-good-news-for-democrats-175368551.html

    http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2012-10-19/nevada-democrats-lead-republicans-by-90000-in-voter-rolls/

    Also, keep in mind that polls ask people their party identification. That is not necessarily the same as party registration. Many people who are registered independents identify with one party or the other.

    ReplyDelete
  4. According to the 2008 exit polls, party ID in Nevada at the polls was:

    D = 38
    R = 30
    I = 32

    So, according to this poll, if we use these numbers:

    Romney: 3.42+27+20.8= 51.22

    Obama: 34.2+2.7+9.6= 46.5

    Sorry, if Romney is winning independents 65-30, he will win Nevada by a comfortable margin, even with a +8 Democrat advantage. The problem with this poll, and even with the analysis above, is that it is highly unlikely that GOP turnout is going to be as it was in 2008, and the GOP is likely to cut the Democrat advantage. We just don't yet know by how much.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Also, I'll reiterate what I said before:

      keep in mind that polls ask people their party identification. That is not necessarily the same as party registration. Many people who are registered independents identify with one party or the other.

      Delete
    2. All of these comments are somewhat true. Exit polls ask voters what party they identify with and their answer may or not be congruent with their registration. Also there is a Democrat advantage in voter registration in Nevada. I doubt it is Democrats plus 9 as this poll shows but I don't have that stat at hand. I do think the sample of latino numbers is off by at least 3 or 4 points. I spend a lot of time in Nevada.
      This is my point. THis poll depends upon a larger outcome form Democrats by at least one point than what happened in 2008. I just don't think that will happen. Nationally in 2008 it was D plus 8 points, right now the national model from Rasmussen and Gallup is Rep plus one. Now I think in Nevada it will be more like Democrat plus 3 based upon the data I have seen. If that is the case it is going to be a long night to see who wins Nevada. However I think the election will be done long before the votes in Nevada have been counted.

      Delete
  5. I am not sure how to explain what is wrong with your manipulation of numbers in a short post, other than to say to two things:

    1. Party identification is very fluid. 4 years is a long time in party id.

    2. http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2012/10/24/romney-wont-win-nevada-republican-advisor-for-nevada-gov-sandoval-says/

    ReplyDelete
  6. party id is somewhat fluid. But how much was republican party ID hurt last time by the fact that late voting was curtailed because they already knew obama won? 2004 it was R+4 and bush wasn't the most popular guy around. 4 years it goes 12 points the other way? Sounds iffy. Nationally it moved 7 points and the vote moved about 10...nevada it moves 12 and the vote moves about 12.

    Republicans will be crawling over broken glass to vote against this guy. Doesn't mean they'll win as D has +7 in registration and I doubt romney wins independents by 30 points.

    ReplyDelete
  7. According to ABC, PARTY REGISTRATION is as follows:

    Democrats: 520,638 Republicans: 434,313 Independents: 216,722 Independent American Party: 57,578 Libertarian: 8,358 Green: 1,181 Other: 6,760

    Plugging these numbers into the percentages in the Gravis poll yields:
    580,444D, and 591,228R. This may underestimate R, because a fair number of the IAPs and Ls will vote R.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Wow! Good knowledge here. I am very enjoying read this article. Thanks to wonderful information give us.

    Breaking Politics News

    ReplyDelete