Friday, October 26, 2012

Gravis Marketing North Carolina Public Opinion Poll


Results from North Carolina Likely Voter Survey

Gravis Public Opinion Poll


Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 1723 likely voters in North Carolina October 24, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.4% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         Governor Romney leads President Obama by 8 percentage points in North Carolina, 53 to 45 percent. Three percent are undecided.

·         There is a significant gender gap in this survey. Governor Romney leads President Obama by 17 percentage points among men, 57 to 40 percent. The candidates are tied among women at 49 percent each.

·         A majority of North Carolina voters (52 percent) do not approve of President Obama’s job performance.  43 percent approve of the president’s job performance.

·         A similar slim majority (51 percent) of North Carolina voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, 42 percent think the country is headed in the right direction.









                                                                                                                                        



Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Question 8: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
North Carolina
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Barack Obama
45
40
49
82
4
33
Mitt Romney
53
57
49
16
95
61
Undecided
3
4
2
2
1
6

Question 9: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
North Carolina
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
43
39
47
79
4
33
No
52
57
48
16
92
61
Undecided
5
4
5
5
4
6



Question 10: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
North Carolina
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
42
38
45
75
5
32
Wrong Direction
51
55
48
16
91
61
Undecided
7
7
7
9
4
7





Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
North Carolina
Voters
Yes
100
No
0
  
Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections?
North Carolina
Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
                       1       
Likely
5
Very likely
94
                                                         

Question 3: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
North Carolina
Voters
Democrat
42
Republican
31
Independent or in another party
27

Question 4:  What race do you identify yourself as?
North Carolina
Voters
White/Caucasian
68
African-American
25
Hispanic
3
Asian
1
Other
3

Question 5: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
North Carolina
Voters
Catholic
26
Protestant/Other Christian
54
Jewish
6
Muslim
2
Other
12

Question 6:  What is your age?
North Carolina
Voters
18-29
8
30-49
38
50-64
32
65+
22

Question 7: What is your gender?
North Carolina
Voters
Male
46
Female
54
                                                                                                                                                                                   

7 comments:

  1. Why are hispanics only 3% of the poll when they're now 25% of registered voters in NC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What world do you live in? Hispanics are not 25% of registered voters in North Carolina!

      Delete
    2. According to the US census, North Carolina is 8.6% Hispanic. People WAY overestimate the Hispanic vote. If Obama gets anything less than 40% of the white vote, he loses even if he received 100% of every other race.

      Delete
  2. Am I the only one who thinks 18-29 y.o. making up a mere 8% of the electorate is just a little bit low? After all the last time 18-29 y.o. were 8% of the electorate was 2006. Surely turnout will be higher in a presidential election year -- something closer to, say, 10-12% of the electorate? After all, unlike other states turnout among 18-29 y.o. is over 50% in NC and the under 30 crowd tends to break towards Obama by about 20 points.

    In short, I think the undersampling of the youth vote is showing a disproportionally (R) lean and, perhaps, the race is slightly closer than R+8 when the youth vote is factored in at a rate closer to their 2008 levels.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The number would seem to suggest that this is disproportionally Republican, but the poll also oversamples African-Americans from 2008 numbers and undersamples white voters by about 4% in relation to the last Presidential Election. There are always problems with sampling, but if the numbers were similar to 2008, the result would probably be the same and quite possibly a larger Republican lead.

      Delete
  3. But the same is not true for North Carolina. Despite the startling growth of the Hispanic community in North Carolina, African Americans represent a significantly larger share of the electorate, according to the report. In 2012, African Americans represent more than 20 percent of registered voters in that state. Hispanics represented less than 2 percent.

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/thenextamerica/demographics/n-c-electorate-reflects-big-demographic-shift-20120529

    ReplyDelete
  4. why don't you ask people who they voted for in the previous election? It would give you some idea if you're weighting it right, ie it was basically tied last time, so if your poll comes back that the people who voted last time, voted R+5 or D+5, it would be interesting. And then you could also list how the previous voters are voting THIS time. Split apart from those voting this time who didn't vote last time.

    ReplyDelete