Friday, October 26, 2012

Gravis Marketing North Carolina Public Opinion Poll


Results from North Carolina Likely Voter Survey

Gravis Public Opinion Poll


Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 1723 likely voters in North Carolina October 24, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.4% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         Governor Romney leads President Obama by 8 percentage points in North Carolina, 53 to 45 percent. Three percent are undecided.

·         There is a significant gender gap in this survey. Governor Romney leads President Obama by 17 percentage points among men, 57 to 40 percent. The candidates are tied among women at 49 percent each.

·         A majority of North Carolina voters (52 percent) do not approve of President Obama’s job performance.  43 percent approve of the president’s job performance.

·         A similar slim majority (51 percent) of North Carolina voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, 42 percent think the country is headed in the right direction.









                                                                                                                                        



Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Question 8: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
North Carolina
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Barack Obama
45
40
49
82
4
33
Mitt Romney
53
57
49
16
95
61
Undecided
3
4
2
2
1
6

Question 9: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
North Carolina
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
43
39
47
79
4
33
No
52
57
48
16
92
61
Undecided
5
4
5
5
4
6



Question 10: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
North Carolina
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
42
38
45
75
5
32
Wrong Direction
51
55
48
16
91
61
Undecided
7
7
7
9
4
7





Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
North Carolina
Voters
Yes
100
No
0
  
Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections?
North Carolina
Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
                       1       
Likely
5
Very likely
94
                                                         

Question 3: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
North Carolina
Voters
Democrat
42
Republican
31
Independent or in another party
27

Question 4:  What race do you identify yourself as?
North Carolina
Voters
White/Caucasian
68
African-American
25
Hispanic
3
Asian
1
Other
3

Question 5: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
North Carolina
Voters
Catholic
26
Protestant/Other Christian
54
Jewish
6
Muslim
2
Other
12

Question 6:  What is your age?
North Carolina
Voters
18-29
8
30-49
38
50-64
32
65+
22

Question 7: What is your gender?
North Carolina
Voters
Male
46
Female
54