Gravis Marketing Ohio Poll Results

Results from Ohio Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 730 likely voters in Ohio October 27, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         President Barack Obama holds a slim one percentage point lead over Governor Romney, 50 to 49 percent. Only 2 percent are undecided. (Note the figures add up to 101 due to rounding to the nearest whole percentage point.)

·         Senator Brown also holds a slim one point lead over his Republican challenger Josh Mandel, 48 to 47 percent. 5 percent of Ohio voters are undecided in this race.

·         Early voters clearly favor the Democratic candidates. President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 28 percentage points among the 20 percent of early voters surveyed, 63 to 35 percent. Sherrod Brown leads Josh Mandel by a similar 26-point margin, 61 to 35 percent.

·         The likely voters who have not yet cast ballots in Ohio preferred the Republican candidates. Mitt Romney leads President Obama by 6 percentage points with these voters (52 to 46 percent), while Josh Mandel leads with these voters by 5 percentage points (50 to 45 percent).

·         This survey shows a 17 percentage point gender gap in the presidential race and a 15 point gap in the Senate race in Ohio. A majority of men favor Governor Romney and Josh Mandel, while a majority of women favor President Obama and Senator Brown.

·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Presidential Ballot: Question 3 & 5 Combined Early & Likely Voters	Ohio Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Barack Obama	50	45	53	83	14	41
Mitt Romney	49	53	44	16	85	53
Undecided	2	2	2	1	0	6

Senate Ballot: Question 4 & 6 Combined Early & Likely Voters	Ohio Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Sherrod Brown	48	45	51	81	15	40
Josh Mandel	47	52	43	17	79	53
Undecided	5	3	6	2	6	7

Question 7: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?	Ohio Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Yes	46	42	49	78	16	33
No	48	50	46	16	82	55
Undecided	7	8	5	7	2	11

Question 8: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?	Ohio Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Right Direction	40	37	42	69	12	28
Wrong Direction	50	53	27	18	83	58
Undecided	10	10	11	13	5	13

Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting

Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which candidate did you already vote for?	Ohio Voters
Democrat Barack Obama	63
Republican Mitt Romney	35
Rather not say or unsure	1

Question 4: EARLY VOTERS ONLY Did you vote for Democrat Sherrod Brown or Republican Josh Mandel?	Ohio Voters
Democrat Sherrod Brown	61
Republican Josh Mandel	35
Undecided	4

                                                                                                       

Question 5: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?	Ohio Voters
Democrat Barack Obama	46
Republican Mitt Romney	52
Undecided	2

Question 6: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the Ohio election for senate were held today, would you vote for Sherrod Brown or Josh Mandel?	Ohio Voters
Democrat Sherrod Brown	45
Republican Josh Mandel	50
Undecided	5

                                                         

Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?	Ohio Voters
Yes	100
No	0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?	Ohio Voters
Very unlikely	0
Unlikely	0
Somewhat unlikely	0
Somewhat likely	1
Likely	12
Very likely	68
Already voted	20

Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]	Ohio Voters
Democrat	40
Republican	32
Independent or in another party	28

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?	Ohio Voters
White/Caucasian	76
African-American	12
Hispanic	6
Asian	1
Other	5

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?	Ohio Voters
Catholic	23
Protestant/Other Christian	55
Jewish	4
Muslim	1
Other	17

Question 10:  What is your age?	Ohio Voters
18-29	18
30-49	28
50-64	30
65+	24

Question 11: What is your gender?	Ohio Voters
Male	47
Female	53