Results
from Ohio Likely Voter Survey
Methodology
|
Gravis
Marketing conducted an automated survey of 730 likely voters in Ohio October 27,
2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6% and higher for subgroups.
Results
shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups.
All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest
whole percentage.
The
questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this
report. Results only include respondents
who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very
likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups
for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models
from previous elections.
The poll
was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a
non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida.
Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com
Key Findings
|
·
President Barack Obama holds a slim one
percentage point lead over Governor Romney, 50 to 49 percent. Only 2 percent
are undecided. (Note the figures add up to 101 due to rounding to the nearest
whole percentage point.)
·
Senator Brown also holds a slim one point lead
over his Republican challenger Josh Mandel, 48 to 47 percent. 5 percent of Ohio
voters are undecided in this race.
·
Early voters clearly favor the Democratic
candidates. President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 28 percentage points among the
20 percent of early voters surveyed, 63 to 35 percent. Sherrod Brown leads Josh
Mandel by a similar 26-point margin, 61 to 35 percent.
·
The likely voters who have not yet cast
ballots in Ohio preferred the Republican candidates. Mitt Romney leads
President Obama by 6 percentage points with these voters (52 to 46 percent),
while Josh Mandel leads with these voters by 5 percentage points (50 to 45
percent).
·
This survey shows a 17 percentage point gender
gap in the presidential race and a 15 point gap in the Senate race in Ohio. A
majority of men favor Governor Romney and Josh Mandel, while a majority of
women favor President Obama and Senator Brown.
·
Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of
the Country
|
Presidential Ballot:
Question 3 & 5 Combined
Early & Likely Voters
|
Ohio
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Barack
Obama
|
50
|
45
|
53
|
83
|
14
|
41
|
Mitt
Romney
|
49
|
53
|
44
|
16
|
85
|
53
|
Undecided
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
6
|
Senate Ballot:
Question 4 & 6 Combined
Early & Likely Voters
|
Ohio
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Sherrod
Brown
|
48
|
45
|
51
|
81
|
15
|
40
|
Josh
Mandel
|
47
|
52
|
43
|
17
|
79
|
53
|
Undecided
|
5
|
3
|
6
|
2
|
6
|
7
|
Question 7: Do you approve of President
Obama’s job performance?
|
Ohio
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Yes
|
46
|
42
|
49
|
78
|
16
|
33
|
No
|
48
|
50
|
46
|
16
|
82
|
55
|
Undecided
|
7
|
8
|
5
|
7
|
2
|
11
|
Question 8: Do you think the United States
of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
|
Ohio
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Right
Direction
|
40
|
37
|
42
|
69
|
12
|
28
|
Wrong
Direction
|
50
|
53
|
27
|
18
|
83
|
58
|
Undecided
|
10
|
10
|
11
|
13
|
5
|
13
|
Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting
|
Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which
candidate did you already vote for?
|
Ohio
Voters
|
|
Democrat
Barack Obama
|
63
|
|
Republican
Mitt Romney
|
35
|
|
Rather
not say or unsure
|
1
|
Question 4: EARLY VOTERS ONLY Did you vote
for Democrat Sherrod Brown or Republican Josh Mandel?
|
Ohio
Voters
|
|
Democrat
Sherrod Brown
|
61
|
|
Republican
Josh Mandel
|
35
|
|
Undecided
|
4
|
Question 5: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the
election for President of the United States were held today who would you
vote for?
|
Ohio
Voters
|
|
Democrat
Barack Obama
|
46
|
|
Republican
Mitt Romney
|
52
|
|
Undecided
|
2
|
Question 6: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the Ohio
election for senate were held today, would you vote for Sherrod Brown or Josh
Mandel?
|
Ohio
Voters
|
|
Democrat
Sherrod Brown
|
45
|
|
Republican
Josh Mandel
|
50
|
|
Undecided
|
5
|
Screeners & Demographics
|
Question 1:
Are you registered to vote?
|
Ohio
Voters
|
Yes
|
100
|
No
|
0
|
Question 2:
How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?
|
Ohio
Voters
|
Very
unlikely
|
0
|
Unlikely
|
0
|
Somewhat
unlikely
|
0
|
Somewhat
likely
|
1
|
Likely
|
12
|
Very
likely
|
68
|
Already
voted
|
20
|
Question 7: What is your political party
affiliation? [FIRST TWO CHOICES
ROTATED]
|
Ohio
Voters
|
Democrat
|
40
|
Republican
|
32
|
Independent
or in another party
|
28
|
Question 8:
What race do you identify yourself as?
|
Ohio Voters
|
White/Caucasian
|
76
|
African-American
|
12
|
Hispanic
|
6
|
Asian
|
1
|
Other
|
5
|
Question 9: Which of the following best
represents your religious affiliation?
|
Ohio Voters
|
Catholic
|
23
|
Protestant/Other
Christian
|
55
|
Jewish
|
4
|
Muslim
|
1
|
Other
|
17
|
Question 10: What
is your age?
|
Ohio Voters
|
18-29
|
18
|
30-49
|
28
|
50-64
|
30
|
65+
|
24
|
Question
11: What is your gender?
|
Ohio
Voters
|
Male
|
47
|
Female
|
53
|
