Sunday, October 28, 2012

Gravis Marketing Ohio Poll Results


Results from Ohio Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 730 likely voters in Ohio October 27, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         President Barack Obama holds a slim one percentage point lead over Governor Romney, 50 to 49 percent. Only 2 percent are undecided. (Note the figures add up to 101 due to rounding to the nearest whole percentage point.)


·         Senator Brown also holds a slim one point lead over his Republican challenger Josh Mandel, 48 to 47 percent. 5 percent of Ohio voters are undecided in this race.

·         Early voters clearly favor the Democratic candidates. President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 28 percentage points among the 20 percent of early voters surveyed, 63 to 35 percent. Sherrod Brown leads Josh Mandel by a similar 26-point margin, 61 to 35 percent.

·         The likely voters who have not yet cast ballots in Ohio preferred the Republican candidates. Mitt Romney leads President Obama by 6 percentage points with these voters (52 to 46 percent), while Josh Mandel leads with these voters by 5 percentage points (50 to 45 percent).

·         This survey shows a 17 percentage point gender gap in the presidential race and a 15 point gap in the Senate race in Ohio. A majority of men favor Governor Romney and Josh Mandel, while a majority of women favor President Obama and Senator Brown.


·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Presidential Ballot:
Question 3 & 5 Combined
Early & Likely Voters
Ohio
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Barack Obama
50
45
53
83
14
41
Mitt Romney
49
53
44
16
85
53
Undecided
2
2
2
1
0
6

Senate Ballot:
Question 4 & 6 Combined
Early & Likely Voters
Ohio
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Sherrod Brown
48
45
51
81
15
40
Josh Mandel
47
52
43
17
79
53
Undecided
5
3
6
2
6
7

Question 7: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
Ohio
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
46
42
49
78
16
33
No
48
50
46
16
82
55
Undecided
7
8
5
7
2
11

Question 8: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
Ohio
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
40
37
42
69
12
28
Wrong Direction
50
53
27
18
83
58
Undecided
10
10
11
13
5
13





Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting

Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which candidate did you already vote for?
Ohio
Voters
Democrat Barack Obama
63
Republican Mitt Romney
35
Rather not say or unsure
1


Question 4: EARLY VOTERS ONLY Did you vote for Democrat Sherrod Brown or Republican Josh Mandel?
Ohio
Voters
Democrat Sherrod Brown
61
Republican Josh Mandel
35
Undecided
4

                                                                                                       
Question 5: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
Ohio
Voters
Democrat Barack Obama
46
Republican Mitt Romney
52
Undecided
2


Question 6: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the Ohio election for senate were held today, would you vote for Sherrod Brown or Josh Mandel?
Ohio
Voters
Democrat Sherrod Brown
45
Republican Josh Mandel
50
Undecided
5



                                                         




Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
            Ohio Voters
Yes
100
No
0


Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?
            Ohio Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
1
Likely
12
Very likely
68                               
Already voted
20
Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
            Ohio Voters
Democrat
40
Republican
32
Independent or in another party
28

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?
Ohio Voters
White/Caucasian
76
African-American
12
Hispanic
6
Asian
1
Other
5

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
Ohio Voters
Catholic
23
Protestant/Other Christian
55
Jewish
4
Muslim
1
Other
17

Question 10:  What is your age?
Ohio Voters
18-29
18
30-49
28
50-64
30
65+
24

Question 11: What is your gender?
Ohio Voters
Male
47
Female
53