Michigan Poll Shows Close Race Between Obama and Romney

On the evenings between October 5-8, 2012, Gravis Marketing conducted telephone polls of 1,122 Michigan residents who are likely to vote in the upcoming presidential election. Among the people who were registered to vote 1387 registered voters , Obama held a greater lead over Romney, 47.3 percent to 42.3 percent. Voters who were undecided comprised 10.4 percent of those surveyed. However, when looking at the people who are just likely to vote, the Obama's margin narrows significantly as the numbers go to 46 percent for Obama, 44.4 percent for Romney with 9.5 percent undecided. These numbers have changed since the last poll which was conducted on September 21 and 22, 2012 where 49 percent of likely voters supported Obama, 45 supported Romney and 4 percent were undecided. In the last two weeks, more people have become undecided as for whom they will vote come Election Day. 

Romney is the favorite among individuals who profess to be of the Catholic or Protestant/Other Christian faiths, with 52 percent and 54 percent of them planning to vote for the Republican nominee. Among Jewish, Muslim and people of "other" faiths, Obama is the clear favorite with 59, 64 and 66 percent of the votes among people in those religions. By race, Whites are more likely than others to vote for Romney, 47.7 to 44 percent and African Americans favor Obama over Romney, 68.9 to 25.3 percent. Among those of other races, or who refused to say, they are split quite evenly among Obama, Romney and undecided.

The voters were asked a series of eight questions including whether or not the individual was registered to vote, their party affiliation, their age, race, religion, gender and who they would vote for if the election was held that day. The sampling of individuals remained quite similar to those who participated in the previous poll. In the most recent one, 53 percent of respondents were female and 47 were male. The majority, 38 percent, were aged 50-64, while those aged 30-49 made up 29 percent of people surveyed. By party affiliation, 37 percent said they are Democrat, 31 percent are Republican and the remaining 32 percent classified themselves as "other."

Executive Summary

On October 5 – 8, 2012, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm, conducted a survey of 1,122 likely voters in Michigan regarding their vote for a given Presidential candidate.

Overall, Obama holds a 46.0% to 44.4% lead among likely voters and a 47.3% to 42.3% among registered voters. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2%. 

Obama’s lead in Michigan is according to race and religious affiliation is shown in the top two graphs. Romney holds a 3.7% lead among Whites, while Obama has a 43.6% advantage among African American voters.  When it comes to religious affiliation, Romney has the lead among Catholics and Other Christians, while Obama has the lead among Muslim, Jews, and not affiliated voters.  A summary of the results and the crosstabs is presented in the following pages.

Summary Results
Party	Percent of total
Democrat	36.5%
Other	32.3%
Republican	31.2%
Race
White	83.4%
African American	10.9%
Other	5.6%
Religious affiliation
Oth.Christian/Prot.	46.0%
Catholic	28.3%
Other	21.7%
Muslim	2.1%
Jewish	2.0%
Age group
50-64	38.1%
30-49	29.0%
65+	18.5%
18-29	14.4%
Sex
Men	47.4%
Women	52.6%
President
Obama	46.0%
Romney	44.4%
Unsure/Other	9.5%

 

 

 

Survey Questions

1.  Are you registered to vote?  (Yes, No)

2.  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections? (Very unlikely, Unlikely, Somewhat unlikely, Somewhat likely, Likely, Very likely)

3. In which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself a member of? (Democrat, Republican, independent or minority party)

4. What race do you identify yourself as? (White/Caucasian, African-American, Hispanic, Asian, Other)

5. Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation? (Roman Catholic, Protestant/other non-denominational Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Other/no affiliation)

7. What is your Gender? (Male, Female)

8.  If the election for President of the United States were held today, whom would you vote for?

Note: the statistical methodology comprised weighing the polled groups for anticipated voting proportions for the 2012 General Election. The poll was conducted by automated telephone call of registered voters in the state of Michigan.