Saturday, October 20, 2012

Gravis Ohio Poll Shows...


Results from Ohio Likely Voter Survey

Key Findings

·         President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in the key battleground state of Ohio.

·         Romney leads by 6 percentage points among men (50 to 44 percent), while Obama leads by 4 percentage points among women (49 to 45 percent).

·         Both sides are doing well to consolidate their bases in Ohio. 87 percent of Democrats say they will vote for President Obama and 92 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Governor Romney if the election were held today. Governor Romney leads with independents 52 to 33 percent.

·         The president has a net negative job approval rating of 6 points, 44 percent approve of President Obama’s job performance while 50 percent do not.

·         Ohio voters are more likely by a 6 percentage point margin to think the country is going in the wrong direction (49 percent) than in the right direction (43 percent).


 September Poll Obama+1, 9-22-2012



Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 1943 likely voters in the state of Ohio. October 18, 2012 and October  19, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.2% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered they were registered voters, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm, located in Winter Springs Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan 407-242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com
·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Question 8: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
Ohio
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Barack Obama
47
44
49
87
7
33
Mitt Romney
47
50
45
9
92
52
Undecided
6
5
6
4
1
15

Question 9: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
Ohio
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
44
41
47
82
7
31
No
50
53
46
13
90
58
Undecided
6
5
7
5
4
11

Question 10: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
Ohio
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
43
39
46
80
6
30
Wrong Direction
49
53
46
12
89
58
Undecided
8
8
8
8
5
12








Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
                      Ohio Voters
Yes
100
No
0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections?
                      Ohio Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
0
Likely
5
Very likely
95
                                                                                     
Question 3: What is your political party affiliation? [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
                      Ohio Voters
Democrat
41
Republican
32
Independent or in another party
27

Question 4:  What race do you identify yourself as?
Ohio Voters
White/Caucasian
76
African-American
12
Hispanic
6
Asian
1
Other
5

Question 5: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
Ohio Voters
Catholic
23
Protestant/Other Christian
50
Jewish
2
Muslim
1
Other
24

Question 6:  What is your age?
Ohio Voters
18-29
18
30-49
28
50-64
30
65+
24
  
Question 7: What is your gender?
Ohio Voters
Male
47
Female
53





Contact Doug Kaplan:            407-242-1870      doug@gravismarketing.com
www.gravismarketing.com

31 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. totally agree. The affiliation proportions are not realistic when the general population of Ohio is much more evenly split between Repubs and Dems with much higher independent registrations. When you consider that the Indies are breaking heavily for Romney I'd say he has a two to four point advantage. There is no way 41% dem registration is accurate when you consider likely turn out even if there really was a 9 point Dem advantage which I'm dubious of.

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    2. This poll also assumes 100% of the black population of ohio votes. I would think that highly unlikely given it didn't reach that in 2008.

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  2. 1943 "automated calls." Not ONE to a land line! And your claim to be "non-partisan" is a joke!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. wait, so calling cellphones is partisan? Im not sure what you are implying? So which party supporters have more cellphones? This poll shows a tie. I think the results are Fairly non-partisan. And im a Republican. Romney 2012

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    2. Indeed Anthony, you're right.

      If anything, older people tend to have a greater proportion of land-lines than younger. Younger people tend to have a greater proportion of cell phones. Younger people tend to support Obama over Romney. Older people have a greater proportion of support for Romney compared to their younger counterparts.

      So, if anything, calling only cellphones would tilt the poll in favor of Obama.

      However, I'm unclear as to what prompts your original remark regarding automated lines versus land-lines to begin with? The only language I could find on this site which speaks to that is the following:

      --------
      Gravis uses automated phone calls, live telephone interviews, and Internet panels for the different polls that we conduct.
      --------

      Are you perhaps privy to some information regarding the methodology of this poll that the rest of us aren't? If so, I'd love to hear it -- or simply, why you think the calls were only automated. Thanks,

      -- FF

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. Who are you Doug Kaplan and what are your qualifications to be a pollster? Do you have a background in political science or statistics?

    You are being exposed all over the internet.

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  5. Sidney - it's an Ohio poll. All the calls were made in Ohio.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I know, he edited that - originally it said nationwide.

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  6. Don't know if they called cells or just landlines, but the total is D+9 is very, very high. Last election it was D+8 but if you look a tthe voters by party/independent according to the CNN exit polls, it's consistent with D+5. D+8 with the CNN breakdowns would have been obama by 8% and he won by 4.6%.

    2004 was R+4. Last election (2008) was kind of a high water mark for democrats and you're giving them even more.

    Basically you expect about 30% more democrats to vote than republicans when 8 years ago it was 10% more republicans than democrats. 4 years ago it was maybe 15% more democrats than republicans if it was D+5.

    I just read the "what are your qualifications" post. Hilarious. You give them a D+9 poll and they STILL complain. Amazing. Go the the guys website if you want to read more about him.

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  7. Everybody does it, don't like the result, blame the poll. Which can be valid sometimes especially in the MSM Pro-Obama polls. What I noticed about this poll is (like most) oversamples Dems. AND YET IT IS STILL A TIE! Second it seems to oversample women, I know more women usually vote but 6%? That also favors Obama. SO I love the poll. Looks like Obama is ahead in OHIO and ROMNEY WILL WIN! On Election Night MSNBS is going to look like the scene from the Exorcist where the bed was shaking, her head was spinning and green vomit was spewing out! Gotta love it.

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  8. Hilarious comments! What to do when your favorite right-leaning pollsters doesn't put out. Shun them! Too funny.

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  9. he isn't a "right leaning" pollster and the people complaining are democrats, because he dared have romney tied or slightly leading.

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    Replies
    1. actually he is indeed of the right.

      Every single poll that Gravis Marketing has done has always shown a tight race.

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    2. As I was saying every single gravis poll favors Romney and every time I look at their polling methods and it's obvious looking at the demographics that they tend to poll Romney supporters than any other group.

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    3. I am curious how you can say every single poll favors Romney. Here are the averages from RCP, our polls are actually right down the middle.

      Courtesy of RCP

      Colorado
      PPP (D) 10/16 - 10/18 1000 LV 3.1 47 50 Obama +3
      WeAskAmerica 10/15 - 10/15 1206 LV 2.9 48 47 Romney +1
      Denver Post/SurveyUSA 10/9 - 10/10 614 LV 4.0 48 47 Romney +1
      Gravis Marketing 10/5 - 10/11 2089 LV 2.2 46 48 Obama +2

      Florida
      RCP Average 10/7 - 10/18 -- -- 49.3 46.9 Romney +2.4
      Rasmussen Reports 10/18 - 10/18 750 LV 4.0 51 46 Romney +5
      CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/18 681 LV 4.0 49 48 Romney +1
      Gravis Marketing 10/13 - 10/14 617 LV 4.0 49 48 Romney +1


      Nevada
      Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
      RCP Average 10/6 - 10/15 -- -- 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0
      Rasmussen Reports 10/15 - 10/15 500 LV 4.5 50 47 Obama +3
      LVRJ/SurveyUSA 10/11 - 10/15 806 LV 3.5 48 45 Obama +3
      Suffolk/KSNV 10/6 - 10/9 500 LV 4.4 47 45 Obama +2
      PPP (D) 10/8 - 10/10 594 LV 4.0 51 47 Obama +4
      Rasmussen Reports 10/8 - 10/8 500 LV 4.5 47 47 Tie
      LVRJ/SurveyUSA 10/3 - 10/8 1222 LV 2.9 47 46 Obama +1
      Gravis Marketing 10/3 - 10/3 1006 LV 3.1 49 48 Obama +1




      MO
      Poll Date Sample MoE Romney (R) Obama (D) Spread
      RCP Average 10/1 - 10/17 -- -- 53.3 43.0 Romney +10.3
      Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/17 500 LV 4.5 54 43 Romney +11
      Wenzel Strategies (R) 10/12 - 10/13 1000 LV 3.1 55 41 Romney +14
      Rasmussen Reports 10/2 - 10/2 500 LV 4.5 49 46 Romney +3
      PPP (D) 10/1 - 10/3 700 LV 3.7 51 45 Romney +6
      WeAskAmerica 9/25 - 9/27 1145 LV 2.9 48 45 Romney +3
      Gravis Marketing* 9/16 - 9/17 1959 LV 2.3 48 39 Romney +9
      Ohio: Romney vs. Obama
      Key 2012 Races: Senate, OH6, OH7, OH16 | President: 2008: Obama +4.6, 2004: Bush +2.1
      Polling Data
      Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
      RCP Average 10/5 - 10/20 -- -- 48.1 46.0 Obama +2.1
      PPP (D) 10/18 - 10/20 532 LV 4.3 49 48 Obama +1
      Gravis Marketing 10/18 - 10/19 1943 LV 2.2 47 47 Tie
      FOX News 10/17 - 10/18 1131 LV 3.0 46 43 Obama +3
      Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/17 750 LV 4.0 49 48 Obama +1
      SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/15 613 LV 4.0 45 42 Obama +3
      NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/7 - 10/9 994 LV 3.1 51 45 Obama +6
      ARG 10/5 - 10/8 600 LV 4.0 47 48 Romney +1
      CNN/Opinion Research 10/5 - 10/8 722 LV 3.5 51 47 Obama +4
      All Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data | Ohio Race 4 Years Ago Today

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    4. RCP averages are also right leaning...and at this point in the race...they are cherry picking polls to keep things artificially inflated for Romney...1 PPP in VA and 1 PPP in Iowa are missing from the averages...the VA poll would give Obama +13 (Overall +8) in "no tossups"...they also have MI and PA sitting in tossup but their average is at 5 points for Obama in both states...appears they don't want Obama to have the +36 ECV in his column...kinda sad.

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  10. I have HUGE problems with this poll. One it's overwhelmingly white and mostly protestant.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you have a "problem" with he racial breakdown, your problem is not with the pollster, it's with OHIO!

      If you "have a huge problem" with the number of Catholics, Whites, etc, then take it up with the state of Ohio.

      Good G-d man, what do you expect the pollster to do? Display overt prejudice as to the *race* and the *religion* of the people he polls in the state?

      I'm willing to bet you're a Democrat (tell me if I'm wrong -- really, I am curious). But if you are, you're the *last* person who should be making a comment like this.

      The fact is, in the same way that it's incumbent on the GOP to "reach out" more to Hispanic / Latino voters, it's incumbent on the Democratic Party to "reach out" to Catholics and I guess "Whites" assuming you think that those are groups they have trouble with. And I'm presuming that because it is the only evidence you put forth as to why you have a "huge problem" with this poll.

      Talk about blaming the messenger!

      The very fact that this poll has a margin of error that's almost 50% LESS than most other polls shows that they put in a hell of a lot more effort (in calling a larger sample) than most. Indeed, that costs a lot more money (because they have to call almost 5 - 10 X *more* people to get ones who will actually answer all the questions as opposed to hanging up the phone or who are not home).

      That very low Margin of Error is the only reason I followed the link from RCP to here -- to see who these people (the polling organization) were.

      I don't want to put words in your mouth (you didn't say much) -- but yours is a rather juvenile response -- apparently saying the poll is "racist!" A contention I find laughable for the reasons I outlined earlier. Please tell me I'm mistaken and?or misunderstood you (seriously).

      -- FF

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    2. I looked up the census demographics, and it appears that the racial breakdown in the poll is pretty close to the 2010 census. The percentage of non-hispanic whites at 76% is actually lower than the 81% from the census. The religious breakdown also seems to be pretty close to the census numbers.

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  11. Granted, Pres vs Gov election isn't the same thing. But interesting to note, 2008 went 51%D to 47%R. By midterm, OH was replacing a one-term Dem Governor with a Republican at 49%R to 47%D ratio. So....seems a D+9 poll weighting is plenty generous given recent history.

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  12. @ Dumb Avenger. Holy cow!!!! Could anyone be this...... nvm. Obviously, you have no clue as to what you're babbling about. A quick look at Ohio's real demographics, you can easily find them at Wiki, shows, that this poll, for the racial and religious makeup was pretty spot on. Except that it slightly under represented non-Hispanic Caucasians and over represented Hispanics. And, as pointed out earlier, this has a Dem +9. Unless Chicago moved to Ohio, I don't see that happening. Nor, does any other rational individual.

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  13. When you can't even format your tables properly, please don't attempt to sound legitimate and be listed on RCP. I don't understand why any BS polling org is listed on RCP...

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  14. He cut and pasted. Why is it a BS polling org? It didn't give you the result you wanted? Are you a child or what?

    Also to the "why are whites so prominent in the poll!" guy, look at the cnn exit polls from 2008. This poll is pretty much in line with that. And other polls are the same way.

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  15. Here's the demographics from cnn's exit poll.

    Interestingly if you do their math for voter ID, you get obama winning by 7.2%, but he only won by 4.6% or so. Which implies (if you take their vote by party (ie 89/11 or whatever)) that it was closer to D+5. Still a HUGE democrat turnout. I don't see d+8 or d+9 as credible...but that's what all the pollsters are doing.

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=OHP00p1

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  16. Guys, this election exposes STARK differences in how older and younger people typically vote. 54% of those polled were 50+ and only 46% were under 50. This would be based on looking at voter turnout over the past X election cycles. The poll is completely accurate, as far as any of the polls go, the wildcard that none of the pollsters can consistently predict is TURNOUT. We'll all see on Nov. 7.

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  17. Beyond that, ANY poll that does NOT draw the line at age 55 this election, rather than 50 is just being disingenuous about measuring the effect of the GOP bribing everyone over 55. Just say'in, pretty lame to try to pretend it isn't happening.

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  18. I don't get it, what do you mean "draw the line at age 55"? They should exclude people over 55? Or they should break apart 50-54 and 55+? Lame to pretend the GOP isn't "bribing" people over 55? An utterly nonsensical comment.

    This is the first accusation I've heard of the GOP "bribing people over 55" (as opposed to 50? The GOP has strict age cutoffs about who they bribe? What?). And not only is it general knowledge it's apparently "lame" to deny it.

    They did put a lot of 65+ in here compared to CNN, but they also have even more 18-29 year olds voting than in 2008, which is unlikely. Such 18-29 year olds usually claim independent but vote 2-1 democrat. He also has an even more democrat voter ID than in 2008, which seems generous.

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  19. Sure D+9 and it's tied. Party affiliation in Ohio is not D+9, best guess, it will be closer to D+3-D+5, Ohio is lost to Obama. He has no hope of winning there. Dems can complain all they want, there is no way they will match turn-out from 2008, and GOP voters are much more enthused this time around. Ohio will go +3 to Romney based on more realistic party affiliation. Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Wisconsin will all go to Romney, that is my prediction. Obama will take Minnesota, Michigan, and Nevada by 1-3 points. NH is the only uncertainty at this point, but it won't matter. Ohio is not close.

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