Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Gravis Public Opinion Polls From Multiple Swing States Reveal Mixed News for Candidates

Gravis Public Opinion Polls From Multiple Swing States Reveal Mixed News for Candidates 

Recent public opinion polls of likely voters in key swing states by Gravis Marketing show an extremely tight race between President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney. The public opinion polls, conducted in Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Virginia and Ohio, between October 24, 2012, and October 27, 2012, also reveal that there are fewer and fewer voters remaining undecided and therefore open to last-minute ads or campaigning by either candidate.

President Obama enjoys a lead in four of the six states—Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio—with Governor Romney holding onto leads in North Carolina and Florida. However, Obama’s advantages in Nevada (50-49) and the all-important swing state of Ohio (50-49), which, with 18 electoral votes, many experts believe may decide the election, are narrow. And in both states just one percent of likely voters remain undecided.

The president holds more comfortable leads in Iowa (50-46) and Virginia (50-46), though with four percent still undecided and with margins of error of +/- 4.3 percent and +/-3.9 percent, respectively, those leads could vanish.
Governor Romney holds a comfortable lead in North Carolina (53-45) and narrowly leads the president in Florida (49-48). In
North Carolina, just two percent remain undecided, so its 15 electoral votes seem secure. However his hold on Florida’s substantial 29 electoral votes seems less assured. With three percent still considering their choices and a margin of error of +/-2.8 percent, the outcome of the Florida vote could hinge on either candidate’s final push.
With the potential for an especially close vote in Florida, its newly enacted strict voter laws and a well-publicized campaign of voter misinformation that spread throughout the state have led some to predict a repeat of the 2000 election melee in which the final result was delayed for weeks and ultimately came down to 537 votes.
Much talk has gone out over the airwaves about women voters, who by tradition tend to vote with Democrats. Earlier general polls by other outlets showed the president with a substantial lead among women voters in the race, but then that lead began to slip.

However, two separate Gravis polls show that, at least in Ohio and Nevada, Obama seems to be regaining support among women voters. In a Nevada poll taken on October 3, 2012, Obama had 51 percent support among women, but by October 24, that support had rise two points to 53 percent. In Ohio, the rise in support has been more marked, from 49 percent on October 18-19 to 53 percent on October 27. Only in Florida has the president seen his support among women dropped—from 51 percent on October 13-14 to 49 percent on October 24.

In North Carolina, the two candidates are in a dead-heat (49-49) for women voters. And in Virginia, with a margin of error of +/-3.9 percent, the two are are statistically tied (50-48). Only in Iowa does Obama enjoy a comfortable lead among women, holding 59 percent support to Governor Romney’s 36 percent support.
Among men, the governor holds a significant edge in most states. In Iowa, he has a 15-point lead (55-40), and in North Carolina the margin is 17 points (57-40). His advantage is less dramatic, though still significant in Ohio (53-45) and Nevada (51-46). His leads among men in Virginia (49-46) and Florida (50-48) are within the margins of error.
What is significant about the public opinion poll results—and perhaps distressing to the candidates—is how few undecided voters there are left in these swing states, especially among women. In Ohio, for example, there are just two percent left. And Nevada, there appear to be no undecided women voters.