Iowa Public Opinion Poll Shows Obama and Romney....

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Iowa Public Opinion Poll

Results from Iowa Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 517 likely voters in Iowa October 24, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         President Obama currently leads Governor Romney by 4 percentage points in Iowa, 50 to 46 percent.

·         Governor Romney leads President Obama with independent voters by a margin of 48 to 36 percent.  Both candidates received more than 90 percent support from members of their own party.

·         There is a wide gender gap in this survey. Romney leads by 18 percent among men while President Obama leads by 23 percent with women.

·         Iowans are divided nearly equally on whether they approve of President Obama’s job performance.  47 percent approve of his performance while 46 percent do not approve of President Obama’s job performance.

·         Iowans are more likely to think the country is headed in the wrong direction than the right direction by a 4 percentage point margin, 47 percent to 43 percent.

                                                                                                                                        

Question 8: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?	Iowa Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Barack Obama	50	39	59	94	9	36
Mitt Romney	46	57	36	6	92	48
Undecided	4	4	5	1	1	16

Question 9: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?	Iowa Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Yes	47	40	53	90	6	34
No	46	55	37	6	89	51
Undecided	7	5	9	4	5	15

Question 10: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?	Iowa Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Right Direction	43	37	49	81	7	31
Wrong Direction	47	59	37	6	88	58
Undecided	9	4	14	12	4	11

                                                                                                                                                        

Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?	Iowa Voters
Yes	100
No	0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections?	Iowa Voters
Very unlikely	0
Unlikely	0
Somewhat unlikely	0
Somewhat likely	3
Likely	2
Very likely	95

                                                        

Question 3: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]	Iowa Voters
Democrat	41
Republican	35
Independent or in another party	24

Question 4:  What race do you identify yourself as?	Iowa Voters
White/Caucasian	90
African-American	3
Hispanic	3
Asian	1
Other	3

Question 5: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?	Iowa Voters
Catholic	30
Protestant/Other Christian	54
Jewish	1
Muslim	1
Other	14

Question 6:  What is your age?	Iowa Voters
18-29	17
30-49	31
50-64	34
65+	18

Question 7: What is your gender?	Iowa Voters
Male	47
Female	53