Methodology
|
Gravis
Marketing conducted an automated survey of 517 likely voters in Iowa October 24,
2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3% and higher for subgroups.
Results
shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups.
All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest
whole percentage.
The
questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this
report. Results only include respondents
who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very
likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups
for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models
from previous elections.
The poll
was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a
non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida.
Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com
Key Findings
|
·
President Obama currently leads Governor
Romney by 4 percentage points in Iowa, 50 to 46 percent.
·
Governor Romney leads President Obama with
independent voters by a margin of 48 to 36 percent. Both candidates received more than 90 percent
support from members of their own party.
·
There is a wide gender gap in this survey.
Romney leads by 18 percent among men while President Obama leads by 23 percent
with women.
·
Iowans are divided nearly equally on whether
they approve of President Obama’s job performance. 47 percent approve of his performance while
46 percent do not approve of President Obama’s job performance.
·
Iowans are more likely to think the country is
headed in the wrong direction than the right direction by a 4 percentage point
margin, 47 percent to 43 percent.
Question 8: If the election for President of
the United States were held today who would you vote for?
|
Iowa
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Barack
Obama
|
50
|
39
|
59
|
94
|
9
|
36
|
Mitt
Romney
|
46
|
57
|
36
|
6
|
92
|
48
|
Undecided
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
1
|
1
|
16
|
Question 9: Do you approve of President
Obama’s job performance?
|
Iowa
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Yes
|
47
|
40
|
53
|
90
|
6
|
34
|
No
|
46
|
55
|
37
|
6
|
89
|
51
|
Undecided
|
7
|
5
|
9
|
4
|
5
|
15
|
Question 10: Do you think the United States
of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
|
Iowa
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Right
Direction
|
43
|
37
|
49
|
81
|
7
|
31
|
Wrong
Direction
|
47
|
59
|
37
|
6
|
88
|
58
|
Undecided
|
9
|
4
|
14
|
12
|
4
|
11
|
Screeners & Demographics
|
Question 1:
Are you registered to vote?
|
Iowa
Voters
|
Yes
|
100
|
No
|
0
|
Question 2: How likely are you to vote in this year’s
presidential elections?
|
Iowa
Voters
|
Very
unlikely
|
0
|
Unlikely
|
0
|
Somewhat
unlikely
|
0
|
Somewhat
likely
|
3
|
Likely
|
2
|
Very
likely
|
95
|
Question 3: What is your political party
affiliation? [FIRST TWO CHOICES
ROTATED]
|
Iowa
Voters
|
Democrat
|
41
|
Republican
|
35
|
Independent
or in another party
|
24
|
Question 4:
What race do you identify yourself as?
|
Iowa Voters
|
White/Caucasian
|
90
|
African-American
|
3
|
Hispanic
|
3
|
Asian
|
1
|
Other
|
3
|
Question 5: Which of the following best
represents your religious affiliation?
|
Iowa Voters
|
Catholic
|
30
|
Protestant/Other
Christian
|
54
|
Jewish
|
1
|
Muslim
|
1
|
Other
|
14
|
Question 6: What
is your age?
|
Iowa Voters
|
18-29
|
17
|
30-49
|
31
|
50-64
|
34
|
65+
|
18
|
Question
7: What is your gender?
|
Iowa
Voters
|
Male
|
47
|
Female
|
53
|
