Friday, October 26, 2012

Iowa Public Opinion Poll Shows Obama and Romney....


www.gravispolls.com

Iowa Public Opinion Poll

Results from Iowa Likely Voter Survey


Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 517 likely voters in Iowa October 24, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         President Obama currently leads Governor Romney by 4 percentage points in Iowa, 50 to 46 percent.

·         Governor Romney leads President Obama with independent voters by a margin of 48 to 36 percent.  Both candidates received more than 90 percent support from members of their own party.

·         There is a wide gender gap in this survey. Romney leads by 18 percent among men while President Obama leads by 23 percent with women.

·         Iowans are divided nearly equally on whether they approve of President Obama’s job performance.  47 percent approve of his performance while 46 percent do not approve of President Obama’s job performance.

·         Iowans are more likely to think the country is headed in the wrong direction than the right direction by a 4 percentage point margin, 47 percent to 43 percent.



                                                                                                                                        


Question 8: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
Iowa
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Barack Obama
50
39
59
94
9
36
Mitt Romney
46
57
36
6
92
48
Undecided
4
4
5
1
1
16


Question 9: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
Iowa
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
47
40
53
90
6
34
No
46
55
37
6
89
51
Undecided
7
5
9
4
5
15

Question 10: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
Iowa
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
43
37
49
81
7
31
Wrong Direction
47
59
37
6
88
58
Undecided
9
4
14
12
4
11
                                                                                                                                                        







Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
            Iowa Voters
Yes
100
No
0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections?
            Iowa Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
3
Likely
2
Very likely
95
                                                        
Question 3: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
            Iowa Voters
Democrat
41
Republican
35
Independent or in another party
24

Question 4:  What race do you identify yourself as?
Iowa Voters
White/Caucasian
90
African-American
3
Hispanic
3
Asian
1
Other
3

Question 5: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
Iowa Voters
Catholic
30
Protestant/Other Christian
54
Jewish
1
Muslim
1
Other
14

Question 6:  What is your age?
Iowa Voters
18-29
17
30-49
31
50-64
34
65+
18

Question 7: What is your gender?
Iowa Voters
Male
47
Female
53

                

14 comments:

  1. Why are the crosstabulations used for Florida for questions 8-10?

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  2. This is obviously an outlier. in 08 exit polls showed 34 D, 33 R and 33 I as the party ID. to 41/35/24 spread os laughable. If romney wins independents by 12 he wins in a landslide.

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    Replies
    1. Great observation, couldn't agree more

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    2. I live in Iowa, and I must agree as well. Registered Republicans are way up, while registered Democrats are down, so Republicans actually have the edge. In addition, we have a lot of congressional races and state races that are highly contested, and Republican enthusiasm is very high. It is at least even, perhaps even a bit towards Romney right now.

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    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    4. I love this crap and it is a crap poll. D+6 is higher than 2008 but not by a great deal. This does not reflect the current situation at all and it shows complete bias. The real story is that independents are low balled and they will break for Romney. And mark my word...republicans will show up in 2012 so repub turnout will look more like 2004 where they were +1.2!!!

      Iowa
      2008 Votes-Wom 53.9% Men 46.1% Dems 37.18% Repubs 32.14%
      2004 Votes-Wom 53.7% Men 46.3% Dems 32.85% Repubs 34.07%

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  3. Once again, you keep oversampling democrats. This one is D+6. The voter registrations in Iowa actually are R+1! So you could almost give Romney a 7% boost in this poll. It's worthless.

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  4. As you can see from the graphic, party affiliation in 2004 was 48/48 and turnout was D +0. It is now 46/48 (R +3) and we are using D +5 sampling? That is an 8 point miss!
    This is huge for those who have been following polling with these crazy 2008 samples. Gallup now tells us it is utterly bogus despite the fact they continue to do it!
    In 2008 the electorate was 54/42 Dem/Rep. In 2012 it is 46/49 Dem/Rep, a MASSIVE 15 point Republican shift! Yet every major pollster right now is using a D +5 Sample. This is inexplicable despite Republican enthusiasm advantages. There is literally no rational for the continued use of the 2008 model. None.
    Gallup is telling us the sample should be R +3! If that is the case Romney is actually FAR ahead now and every single poll is wrong. We are looking at a Romney landslide.
    http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/b1dtbephxukk1ie1qbtmqg.gif\

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  5. Would like to see a reply by Gravis to the objections in these comments. Thanks.

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  6. You polled Women +6? Is that really possible?

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  7. All these polls use an overskewed +D sample. See our database of unskewed state polls here: http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/09/lme-presidential-poll-tracker-database.html

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  8. D+6? What? I thought that we all agreed that the samples that were to be used from here on out would be D+20. We need to make sure this race looks tight. With D+20, that should give a slight edge to Obama. Maybe D+50 would show Obama with a 14-15 point edge and then you can say he is winning beyond the margin of error.

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  9. Wow, this poll should give Romney a clear edge in Iowa if you were to take a reasonable sample. Hard to believe they're still skewing polls this much, especially if the spread in Iowa in 08 was pretty much even. Even ignoring my hope that Romney will win, as a thinking person, I can't expect anything less than Romney handily taking Iowa.

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  10. I think they got a 'bonus' contribution from team Obama recently....

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