Friday, October 19, 2012

National Presidential Poll:Romney 46% Obama 44%

 Results from National Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 805 likely voters nationwide October 18, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  
Participants who stated they were not registered to vote, very unlikely to vote, unlikely to vote, and somewhat unlikely to vote, were not included in the survey.

Key Findings

·         Governor Mitt Romney now leads President Barack Obama by 2 percentage points.

·         There remains a wide gender gap as Governor Romney leads by 16 percentage points with men, but trails President Obama by 11 percentage points with women.

·         While Mitt Romney has nearly completed consolidated his base of Republicans, winning 95 percent of them, President Obama only received 83 percent of the vote for Democrats, suggesting he still has more room to consolidate his base.

·         Independents currently favor Mitt Romney by a margin of 42 percent to 34 percent. However, nearly 1 in 4 (24 percent) are undecided.

·         The president has a net negative job approval rating of 10 points, 39 percent approve of President Obama’s job performance while 49 percent do not.

·         Nearly half (49 percent) of likely voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared with 37 percent who say the country is headed in the right direction.



Ballot

Question 8: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
National
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Barack Obama

44
39
48
83
2
34
Mitt Romney
46
55
39
10
95
42
Undecided
10
7
13
7
2
24

Question 9: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
National
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
39
36
43
75
2
30
No
49
57
42
12
93
50
Undecided
12
8
15
12
4
20

Question 10: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
National
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
37
35
39
71
4
27
No
49
55
43
15
90
48
Undecided
14
10
18
14
6
25








Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
           National Voters
Yes
100
No
0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections?
           National Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
2
Likely
5
Very likely
93
                                 
Question 3: What is your political party affiliation? [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
           National Voters
Democrat
40
Republican
32
Independent or in another party
28

Question 4:  What race do you identify yourself as?
National Voters
White/Caucasian
71
African-American
13
Hispanic
12
Asian
2
Other
2

Question 5: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
National Voters
Catholic
26
Protestant/Other Christian
53
Jewish
2
Muslim
1
Other
18

Question 6:  What is your age?
National Voters

18-29
20

30-49
28

50-64
32

65+
20


Question 7: What is your gender?
National Voters
Male
47
Female
53
Contact Doug Kaplan: 407-242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com
www.gravismarketing.com