Thursday, October 11, 2012

Ohio Poll-Romney Leads With Likely Voters, Obama Ahead With Registered Voters


Ohio Results


10/6/2012 - 10/10/2012


A new poll of 1,594 Ohio voters who indicated that they were registered to vote in the upcoming presidential election finds that the race is very close in the Buckeye state. Among all of the likely voters, 1,313 of the poll's participants, Romney is leading with 45.9 percent of the people saying that they'd vote for him, compared to the 45.1 percent favoring Obama. A full 9 percent said that they'd vote for another candidate. However, when compared to the individuals who are registered to vote on Election Day, Obama takes the lead with 46.3 percent of the votes, while Romney has just 44.8 percent. Those who would vote for a third-party candidate came in at 8.9 percent of the poll's participants. Since the convention, this is the first time that Romney has held a lead among Ohio voters.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing between October 6 and 10, 2012. The survey asked participants a series of 12 questions including their party affiliation, gender, age, race, religion, whether or not they approve of President Obama's performance over the past four years, which candidate they would most trust with $1 million, if the United States is headed in the right direction. Interestingly, more people disapprove of Obama's job performance with 49 disapproving and only 42 percent approving while 9 percent were not sure. As for the direction in which the United States is heading, 49 percent said that it's heading in the wrong direction while 39 said that the United States is on the right track. The other 12 percent weren't sure.

Of those surveyed, the party affiliations were almost equally represented wiht 36.4 percent being Democrat, 30.5 percent Republican and 33.1 percent "other." By race, 80 percent were white, 13 percent African American and 7 percent other minorities.



Executive Summary
From October 6th through October 10th, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm, conducted a survey of 1,594 registered voters in the Ohio, of which 1,313 indicated they would likely vote.  The questions covered the presidential and senate elections, among others.  The poll has a margin of error of about 2.7%.  A full list of questions is given on page 5. 
Overall, among just likely voters, Romney leads Obama by a 45.9% to 45.1% margin.  When looking at the entire registered voter population, Obama holds the advantage by 46.3% to 44.8%.  The following page contains a time series of the presidential race since the beginning of September.  This is the first time since the convention bounce that Romney has held the lead. 

Summary Results
Party
Percent of total
Democrat
36.4%
Other
33.1%
Republican
30.5%
Race
White
80.1%
African American
13.3%
Other
6.6%
Religious affiliation
Protestant/Other Christian
52.1%
Catholic
22.6%
Not affiliated
18.0%
Muslim
4.5%
Jewish
2.8%
Age group
18-29
13.1%
30-49
39.6%
50-64
30.4%
65+
16.9%
Gender
Men
48.6%
Female
51.4%
President
Romney
45.9%
Obama
45.1%
Other
9.0%
Approve of Obama's job performance?
Disapprove
48.8%
Approve
41.4%
Other
9.8%
U.S. headed in right direction?
Wrong
48.9%
Right
38.9%
Other
12.2%



Gov. Kasich's job performance?
Positive
41.7%
Negative
31.5%
Other
26.7%


Survey Questions


1.  Are you registered to vote?  (Yes, No)
2.  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections? (Very likely, somewhat likely, Not likely)
3. In which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself a member of? (Democrat, Republican, independent or minority party)
4. What race do you identify yourself as? (White/Caucasian, African-American, Hispanic, Asian, Other)
5. Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation? (Roman Catholic, Protestant/other non-denominational Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Other/no affiliation)
6. How old are you? (18-29, 30-39, 41-49, Over 50)
7. What is your Gender? (Male, Female)
8.  If the election were held today for President, whom would you vote for?
9. Do you approve of Barack Obama’s general performance as president? (Approve, Disapprove, Unsure)
10. If you had $1 million that needed to be managed, who would you trust more to manage?
11. Do you think the United States is headed in the right direction? 
12. How would you rate Governor Kasich’s job performance? (positive, negative, unsure)
Note: the statistical methodology comprised weighing various demographic categories for anticipated voting proportions for the 2012 General Election. 
The poll was conducted by automated telephone of registered voters in the state of Ohio.  

14 comments:

  1. I can't see how this poll is considered even credible. For one they don't list the amount of racial groups that they polled. They ask a very leading question such as if you had a million dollars who would you trust to manage? Which is obviously an attempt to skew the poll in Romney's favor.

    Sorry but I'll look else where to find a more credible poll.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. White
      80.1%
      African American
      13.3%
      Other
      6.6%

      Delete
    2. Mmmm, the racial breakdowns are right in the poll. Pretty close to Ohio population as a whole.


      And why do you think people who would vote for Obama wouldn't want him handling their OWN million dollars?

      I hope you don't mean you would give Obama the national checkbook but don't think he is competant to handle your PRIVATE money? Think about that one, why don't you.

      Delete
    3. A "more credible poll" will be held in three weeks.

      Those that have the faintest idea about what a million dollars is...are likely to be thinking about this anyway on election day. Suggesting that asking the question (after asking who you will vote for) would skew the results is not even decent logic.

      Delete
  2. You have the right to your opinion. There are many polls out there. The question you are referring to is the last question, it has nothing to do with the presidential question, since that is asked first. On every other poll we have provided cross tabs, more then any other company provides, moving further we will be offering our cross tabs for a small fee.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The 'who would you have manage your $million' question seems to direct the respondent's thinking to Romney's experience/skill in private wealth generation.

      This is curiously specific relative to the other questions and therefore hints at bias. You do not ask a corresponding question focusing on Obama's experience/skill (such as 'who would you trust to guide you in a legal dispute?' or 'who would you trust to represent the US at a global leader summit?').

      By asking and publishing the money management question it appears you are attempting to make a specific point and lead the respondent's thinking.

      You therefore become a participant...not a qualified observer.

      Delete
  3. I don't understand why Ohio over the last 4 elections averages 38-36% Democrat and this poll gives Democrats a +6 sampling advantage. In 2008, a wave year, the Democrat advantage was 39-32.

    Do you see the Democrats with the same voting advantage this year with a depressionesque economy and a far superior candidate Romney versus McCain?

    I think Romney's ahead in Ohio by 3-4 points and when undecideds are figured with 75% of them going to the challenger it wouldn't surprise me to see Romney win Ohio by 5-6%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe the race is very close in Ohio. If Obama can turn out his GOTV, then he will win ,however Romney's voters appear more excited. I do agree with you that Romney is superior over McCain, that's why it makes no sense when pollsters come out with polls showing the President with a 6 point lead in Ohio, that would mean he would win Ohio by a larger margin then 2008.

      I could see the president winning Ohio, but losing VA, FL, and NC. What Romney needs is to win the Kaisch and Portman voters from 2010.

      Delete
  4. Gravis has always been pretty good....at least they give some internals.More than you can say for most polls....

    ReplyDelete
  5. I agree this guy gives information and he was generous to the democrats. He should have adjusted the poll to +2 democrat. Then you get Romney up 4

    ReplyDelete
  6. MOST important factor in ALL BATTLEGROUND POLLS! What are the voter party & enthusiam cross tabs for this poll? What % of Dems are voting for Obama? What % of Repubs voting for Romney? What % of IND for either?

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete