Thursday, October 11, 2012

Ohio Poll-Romney Leads With Likely Voters, Obama Ahead With Registered Voters


Ohio Results


10/6/2012 - 10/10/2012


A new poll of 1,594 Ohio voters who indicated that they were registered to vote in the upcoming presidential election finds that the race is very close in the Buckeye state. Among all of the likely voters, 1,313 of the poll's participants, Romney is leading with 45.9 percent of the people saying that they'd vote for him, compared to the 45.1 percent favoring Obama. A full 9 percent said that they'd vote for another candidate. However, when compared to the individuals who are registered to vote on Election Day, Obama takes the lead with 46.3 percent of the votes, while Romney has just 44.8 percent. Those who would vote for a third-party candidate came in at 8.9 percent of the poll's participants. Since the convention, this is the first time that Romney has held a lead among Ohio voters.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing between October 6 and 10, 2012. The survey asked participants a series of 12 questions including their party affiliation, gender, age, race, religion, whether or not they approve of President Obama's performance over the past four years, which candidate they would most trust with $1 million, if the United States is headed in the right direction. Interestingly, more people disapprove of Obama's job performance with 49 disapproving and only 42 percent approving while 9 percent were not sure. As for the direction in which the United States is heading, 49 percent said that it's heading in the wrong direction while 39 said that the United States is on the right track. The other 12 percent weren't sure.

Of those surveyed, the party affiliations were almost equally represented wiht 36.4 percent being Democrat, 30.5 percent Republican and 33.1 percent "other." By race, 80 percent were white, 13 percent African American and 7 percent other minorities.



Executive Summary
From October 6th through October 10th, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm, conducted a survey of 1,594 registered voters in the Ohio, of which 1,313 indicated they would likely vote.  The questions covered the presidential and senate elections, among others.  The poll has a margin of error of about 2.7%.  A full list of questions is given on page 5. 
Overall, among just likely voters, Romney leads Obama by a 45.9% to 45.1% margin.  When looking at the entire registered voter population, Obama holds the advantage by 46.3% to 44.8%.  The following page contains a time series of the presidential race since the beginning of September.  This is the first time since the convention bounce that Romney has held the lead. 

Summary Results
Party
Percent of total
Democrat
36.4%
Other
33.1%
Republican
30.5%
Race
White
80.1%
African American
13.3%
Other
6.6%
Religious affiliation
Protestant/Other Christian
52.1%
Catholic
22.6%
Not affiliated
18.0%
Muslim
4.5%
Jewish
2.8%
Age group
18-29
13.1%
30-49
39.6%
50-64
30.4%
65+
16.9%
Gender
Men
48.6%
Female
51.4%
President
Romney
45.9%
Obama
45.1%
Other
9.0%
Approve of Obama's job performance?
Disapprove
48.8%
Approve
41.4%
Other
9.8%
U.S. headed in right direction?
Wrong
48.9%
Right
38.9%
Other
12.2%



Gov. Kasich's job performance?
Positive
41.7%
Negative
31.5%
Other
26.7%


Survey Questions


1.  Are you registered to vote?  (Yes, No)
2.  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections? (Very likely, somewhat likely, Not likely)
3. In which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself a member of? (Democrat, Republican, independent or minority party)
4. What race do you identify yourself as? (White/Caucasian, African-American, Hispanic, Asian, Other)
5. Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation? (Roman Catholic, Protestant/other non-denominational Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Other/no affiliation)
6. How old are you? (18-29, 30-39, 41-49, Over 50)
7. What is your Gender? (Male, Female)
8.  If the election were held today for President, whom would you vote for?
9. Do you approve of Barack Obama’s general performance as president? (Approve, Disapprove, Unsure)
10. If you had $1 million that needed to be managed, who would you trust more to manage?
11. Do you think the United States is headed in the right direction? 
12. How would you rate Governor Kasich’s job performance? (positive, negative, unsure)
Note: the statistical methodology comprised weighing various demographic categories for anticipated voting proportions for the 2012 General Election. 
The poll was conducted by automated telephone of registered voters in the state of Ohio.