Monday, October 22, 2012

Pennsylvania Public Opinion Poll Shows Obama and Romney....


Results from Pennsylvania Likely Voter Survey

www.gravispolls.com 


Key Findings

·         President Obama leads Governor Romney by 3 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 48 to 45 percent.

·         Pennsylvania independents are nearly evenly split between Governor Romney and President Obama.  41 percent of Pennsylvania independents say they would vote for Governor Romney, 39 percent say they would vote for President Obama and 20 percent say they are undecided.

·         There is a 10 percentage point gender gap in Pennsylvania. President Obama leads with women by 6 percentage points, while Governor Romney leads with men by 4 percentage points.

·         President Obama has a 4-point net negative job performance rating. 48 percent do not approve of President Obama’s performance, while 44 percent approve.

·         Just short of half of Pennsylvania likely voters (49 percent) think the country is headed in the wrong direction, while just over 2 in 5 (41 percent) think the country is headed in the right direction.



Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 887 likely Pennsylvania voters October 21, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan 407-242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com



·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Question 8: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
PA
Likely Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Dem
Rep
Ind
Barack Obama
48
45
51
85
8
39
Mitt Romney
45
49
43
13
87
41
Undecided
6
6
6
2
5
20

Question 9: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
PA Likely
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Dem
Rep
Ind
Yes
44
41
46
78
7
34
No
48
53
44
16
86
50
Undecided
8
6
10
6
7
16

Question 10: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
PA Likely
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Dem
Rep
Ind
Right Direction
41
39
42
74
5
32
Wrong Direction
49
54
46
16
87
55
Undecided
9
7
12
10
7
13







Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
       PA Likely Voters
Yes
100
No
0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections?
       PA Likely Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
2
Likely
7
Very likely
91
                                                        
Question 3: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
               PA Likely Voters
Democrat
45
Republican
37
Independent or in another party
18
Question 4:  What race do you identify yourself as?
PA Likely Voters
White/Caucasian
75
African-American
14
Hispanic
5
Asian
1
Other
5

Question 5: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
PA Likely Voters
Catholic
32
Protestant/Other Christian
42
Jewish
5
Muslim
1
Other
20
Question 6:  What is your age?
PA Likely Voters
18-29
15
30-49
31
50-64
38
65+
16

Question 7: What is your gender?
PA  Likely Voters
Male
46
Female
54
                                                                                                                                                                                   

8 comments:

  1. What's the actual breakdown of registered Democrats, Republicans and "independent" voters in Pennsylvania? Does the percentage of Dems vs. Reps vs indies represent the actual enrollment percentages in the state? Is this sample overweighted with Democrats?

    ReplyDelete
  2. It appears as if there is an over representation of Democrats in this poll, it shows 45% identify as Democrat and 37% as Republicans. What is not indicated is the latest numbers of residents who have identified with either party in the entire populace.

    Many commentators have stated that most polls are still using
    2008 numbers as a base or starting point, this is skewed in many states to the Democrat's benefit, this is translated to a turnaround of up to 8 votes per 100 difference in real votes.
    A poll showing 54% Obama to 46% Romney is really 50%/50% after taking this into account.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Did you also do the senate or just presidential race?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Why do women surveyed in this poll out mnber men 54% to 46%, shouldn't it be more like 51 - 49, you know like real life.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Question 8: alone: This poll shows a win in PA for Romney. how is it Obama leads Governor Romney by 3 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 48 to 45 percent.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Democrats do outnumber Republicans in PA by almost 8pts Yes. But it still is a solid poll for Romney. If he keeps the numbers in Philly to Gore or Kerry margins he can win by running up the western Pittsburg and coal counties. Which is completely possible given Obama's EPA clashes.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete