Results from Pennsylvania Likely Voter Survey
www.gravispolls.com
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Key Findings
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·
President Obama leads Governor Romney by 3
percentage points in Pennsylvania, 48 to 45 percent.
·
Pennsylvania independents are nearly evenly
split between Governor Romney and President Obama. 41 percent of Pennsylvania independents say they
would vote for Governor Romney, 39 percent say they would vote for President
Obama and 20 percent say they are undecided.
·
There is a 10 percentage point gender gap in
Pennsylvania. President Obama leads with women by 6 percentage points, while
Governor Romney leads with men by 4 percentage points.
·
President Obama has a 4-point net negative job
performance rating. 48 percent do not approve of President Obama’s performance,
while 44 percent approve.
·
Just short of half of Pennsylvania likely
voters (49 percent) think the country is headed in the wrong direction, while
just over 2 in 5 (41 percent) think the country is headed in the right
direction.
Methodology
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Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 887 likely Pennsylvania voters October 21, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3% and higher for subgroups.
Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.
The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report. Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.
The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan 407-242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com,
·
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Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of
the Country
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Question 8: If the election for President of
the United States were held today who would you vote for?
|
PA
Likely
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
|
Men
|
Women
|
Dem
|
Rep
|
Ind
|
||
|
Barack
Obama
|
48
|
45
|
51
|
85
|
8
|
39
|
|
Mitt
Romney
|
45
|
49
|
43
|
13
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87
|
41
|
|
Undecided
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6
|
6
|
6
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2
|
5
|
20
|
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Question 9: Do you approve of President
Obama’s job performance?
|
PA
Likely
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
|
Men
|
Women
|
Dem
|
Rep
|
Ind
|
||
|
Yes
|
44
|
41
|
46
|
78
|
7
|
34
|
|
No
|
48
|
53
|
44
|
16
|
86
|
50
|
|
Undecided
|
8
|
6
|
10
|
6
|
7
|
16
|
|
Question 10: Do you think the United States
of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
|
PA
Likely
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
|
Men
|
Women
|
Dem
|
Rep
|
Ind
|
||
|
Right
Direction
|
41
|
39
|
42
|
74
|
5
|
32
|
|
Wrong
Direction
|
49
|
54
|
46
|
16
|
87
|
55
|
|
Undecided
|
9
|
7
|
12
|
10
|
7
|
13
|
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Screeners & Demographics
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Question 1:
Are you registered to vote?
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PA
Likely Voters
|
|
Yes
|
100
|
|
No
|
0
|
|
Question 2:
How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections?
|
PA
Likely Voters
|
|
Very
unlikely
|
0
|
|
Unlikely
|
0
|
|
Somewhat
unlikely
|
0
|
|
Somewhat
likely
|
2
|
|
Likely
|
7
|
|
Very
likely
|
91
|
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Question 3: What is your political party
affiliation? [FIRST TWO CHOICES
ROTATED]
|
PA
Likely Voters
|
|
Democrat
|
45
|
|
Republican
|
37
|
|
Independent
or in another party
|
18
|
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Question 4:
What race do you identify yourself as?
|
PA Likely Voters
|
|
White/Caucasian
|
75
|
|
African-American
|
14
|
|
Hispanic
|
5
|
|
Asian
|
1
|
|
Other
|
5
|
|
Question 5: Which of the following best
represents your religious affiliation?
|
PA Likely Voters
|
|
Catholic
|
32
|
|
Protestant/Other
Christian
|
42
|
|
Jewish
|
5
|
|
Muslim
|
1
|
|
Other
|
20
|
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Question 6: What
is your age?
|
PA Likely Voters
|
|
18-29
|
15
|
|
30-49
|
31
|
|
50-64
|
38
|
|
65+
|
16
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Question 7: What is your gender?
|
PA Likely Voters
|
|
Male
|
46
|
|
Female
|
54
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