Pennsylvania Public Opinion Poll Shows Obama and Romney....

Results from Pennsylvania Likely Voter Survey

www.gravispolls.com 

Key Findings

·         President Obama leads Governor Romney by 3 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 48 to 45 percent.

·         Pennsylvania independents are nearly evenly split between Governor Romney and President Obama.  41 percent of Pennsylvania independents say they would vote for Governor Romney, 39 percent say they would vote for President Obama and 20 percent say they are undecided.

·         There is a 10 percentage point gender gap in Pennsylvania. President Obama leads with women by 6 percentage points, while Governor Romney leads with men by 4 percentage points.

·         President Obama has a 4-point net negative job performance rating. 48 percent do not approve of President Obama’s performance, while 44 percent approve.

·         Just short of half of Pennsylvania likely voters (49 percent) think the country is headed in the wrong direction, while just over 2 in 5 (41 percent) think the country is headed in the right direction.

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 887 likely Pennsylvania voters October 21, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan 407-242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com, 

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Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Question 8: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?	PA Likely Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Dem	Rep	Ind
Barack Obama	48	45	51	85	8	39
Mitt Romney	45	49	43	13	87	41
Undecided	6	6	6	2	5	20

Question 9: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?	PA Likely Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Dem	Rep	Ind
Yes	44	41	46	78	7	34
No	48	53	44	16	86	50
Undecided	8	6	10	6	7	16

Question 10: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?	PA Likely Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Dem	Rep	Ind
Right Direction	41	39	42	74	5	32
Wrong Direction	49	54	46	16	87	55
Undecided	9	7	12	10	7	13

Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?	PA Likely Voters
Yes	100
No	0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections?	PA Likely Voters
Very unlikely	0
Unlikely	0
Somewhat unlikely	0
Somewhat likely	2
Likely	7
Very likely	91

                                                        

Question 3: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]	PA Likely Voters
Democrat	45
Republican	37
Independent or in another party	18

Question 4:  What race do you identify yourself as?	PA Likely Voters
White/Caucasian	75
African-American	14
Hispanic	5
Asian	1
Other	5

Question 5: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?	PA Likely Voters
Catholic	32
Protestant/Other Christian	42
Jewish	5
Muslim	1
Other	20

Question 6:  What is your age?	PA Likely Voters
18-29	15
30-49	31
50-64	38
65+	16

Question 7: What is your gender?	PA  Likely Voters
Male	46
Female	54