Saturday, October 27, 2012

Virginia Presidential and Senate Poll...


Results from Virginia Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 645 likely voters in Virginia October 26, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         The presidential election in Virginia is currently tied. Both President Obama and Governor Romney have 48 percent of the vote. 4 percent remain undecided.

·         George Allen leads Tim Kaine by 2 percentage points, 48 to 46 percent. 5 percent are undecided in that race.

·         President Obama has a net negative job performance rating of 4 percentage points. 47 percent of Virginia voters approve of his performance while 51 percent do not approve.

·         Two percent more Virginia voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction (48 percent) than think it is headed in the right direction (46 percent)


                                                                                                                                  



Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Question 8: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
Virginia
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Barack Obama
48
46
50
95
4
31
Mitt Romney
48
49
48
4
96
58
Undecided
4
5
2
1
1
11

Question 9: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
Virginia
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
47
44
49
90
4
33
No
51
54
48
6
96
64
Undecided
2
2
3
4
0
3

Question 10: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
Virginia
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
46
43
48
89
5
29
Wrong Direction
48
50
46
4
92
62
Undecided
6
6
6
7
3
9
                                                                                                                                                                                                               
Question 11: If the election for US Senate were held today who would you vote for?
Virginia
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Tim Kaine
46
43
49
89
4
32
George Allen
48
51
46
8
92
57
Undecided
5
5
5
3
4
11
                                                                                                                                                                






Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
         Virginia Voters
Yes
100
No
0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections?
        Virginia  Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
1
Likely
6
Very likely
93
                                                        
Question 3: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
         Virginia Voters
Democrat
41
Republican
33
Independent or in another party
26

Question 4:  What race do you identify yourself as?
Virginia Voters
White/Caucasian
63
African-American
22
Hispanic
4
Asian
1
Other
11

Question 5: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
Virginia Voters
Catholic
29
Protestant/Other Christian
45
Jewish
6
Muslim
2
Other
17

Question 6:  What is your age?
Virginia Voters
18-29
10
30-49
30
50-64
38
65+
22

Question 7: What is your gender?
Virginia Voters
Male
46
Female
54
                

14 comments:

  1. This poll really shows Romney with a decisive lead, with coattails to help Allen win. 1) Dems +8 over GOP in Party ID, even though it was only +6 in 2008. Using Gallup's data, GOP turnout is likely to be even or slightly surpass Dem turnout. 2) Romney +27 among Independents is well ahead of Bush's '04 performance when he was +10 & won VA by 8 points. 3) Whites are undersampled. Whites were 70% of the VA electorate in '08, but just 63% in this poll.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yah no worries that in 2008 Gravis also showed a tie. They were only off 6%:) LOL

      Delete
  2. Aslam, you're absolutely correct. There is no data whatsoever that shows VA has a +8 D spread. It's silly to believe this would be the case. If you're interested, we tend to keep track of all these polls once they're unskewed here: http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/09/lme-presidential-poll-tracker-database.html

    ReplyDelete
  3. Will you please stop posting these junk polls? Man where are you getting these skewed samples?

    Getting feed up with your garbage polls.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hey Kaplan do you know statistics 101? Really stand up an answer me.

    A sample is only valid when it represent the population being measured.

    If you honestly think that democrats will have an 8% advantage come election, then you can argue this is a representative sample. But you can't argue that.

    Can you. Can you! If so please show me some data and some links that show virgina is +8 democrats.

    I dare you.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Another Junk poll. Sid axelrod call you Doug? 54% women? +8% democrat.

    Don't give me it's random. Even a random sample is junk if it doesn't represent the population. You need to weight this to proper sex and race and party affiliation that reflects a reasonable expectation of election day.

    A bad sample is a bad sample. You know this is a bad sample and you post it. This is why rcp is useless. If you average junk you get junk.

    ReplyDelete
  6. If Obama has tanked 14 points in Wisconsin, he absolutely cannot win states like Virginia, Florida and Ohio where he won by much smaller margins.

    Plus this poll is ridiculous. As thinking person I can't conclude anything other than that Romney will win Virginia handily.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Well Kaplan? You cant respond? Defend this junk sample. Or will you erase my messages.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Given that Rasmussen shows Romney with a mere 2 point lead with a 4 point Margin of Error, I don't get the all the crocodile tears being shed over this tie-poll. There's a very, very real trend of Republican-leaning voters identifying themselves as independents nowadays, and with Governor Ultrasound in office, I neither blame them nor do I think it's at all surprising.

    ReplyDelete
  9. 100 person sample with 54 women and 41 democrats, and it's still a tie.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Kaplan never answer my challenge, did he. Kaplan reads these comments too. I know he does. They say kaplan has right leaning polls. I guess he over corrected. Dd it on an Ohio poll today also.

    So rcp averages are nothing but skewed polls in every state.

    ReplyDelete
  11. UPDATE: Want to see this poll unskewed, which would eliminate the unrealistic +8 democrat oversampling? Visit our unskewed poll database at The Elephant: http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/09/lme-presidential-poll-tracker-database.html

    ReplyDelete
  12. Thanks for sharing excellent information. Your website is very cool. This website has got really useful info on it!
    http://www.surveytool.com/online-survey-tools/

    ReplyDelete
  13. D'aww. It's so cute. Republicans don't like poll results, so they make BS "unskewed" versions of polls with super unrealistic results. Obama is a sitting president who has presided over the country as the economy gets slightly better from it being completely ruined. That isn't what anyone wants, we all want the country to prosper rather than just marginally improve, but it's not exactly fodder for a Republican explosion, especially since the last Republican was in office for 8 years and the collapse happened in one of his last few years. It's a close election. The polls show your candidate with a slight lead nationally, and you guys can't handle it. Jeez. I guess that's what happens when you're exposed to only conservative media.
    "It's not 500% more conservative than everything else!!!!! Liberal bias!!!!"

    ReplyDelete