Virginia Presidential and Senate Poll...

Results from Virginia Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 645 likely voters in Virginia October 26, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         The presidential election in Virginia is currently tied. Both President Obama and Governor Romney have 48 percent of the vote. 4 percent remain undecided.

·         George Allen leads Tim Kaine by 2 percentage points, 48 to 46 percent. 5 percent are undecided in that race.

·         President Obama has a net negative job performance rating of 4 percentage points. 47 percent of Virginia voters approve of his performance while 51 percent do not approve.

·         Two percent more Virginia voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction (48 percent) than think it is headed in the right direction (46 percent)

                                                                                                                                  

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Question 8: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?	Virginia Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Barack Obama	48	46	50	95	4	31
Mitt Romney	48	49	48	4	96	58
Undecided	4	5	2	1	1	11

Question 9: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?	Virginia Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Yes	47	44	49	90	4	33
No	51	54	48	6	96	64
Undecided	2	2	3	4	0	3

Question 10: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?	Virginia Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Right Direction	46	43	48	89	5	29
Wrong Direction	48	50	46	4	92	62
Undecided	6	6	6	7	3	9

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Question 11: If the election for US Senate were held today who would you vote for?	Virginia Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Tim Kaine	46	43	49	89	4	32
George Allen	48	51	46	8	92	57
Undecided	5	5	5	3	4	11

                                                                                                                                                                

Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?	Virginia Voters
Yes	100
No	0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections?	Virginia  Voters
Very unlikely	0
Unlikely	0
Somewhat unlikely	0
Somewhat likely	1
Likely	6
Very likely	93

                                                        

Question 3: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]	Virginia Voters
Democrat	41
Republican	33
Independent or in another party	26

Question 4:  What race do you identify yourself as?	Virginia Voters
White/Caucasian	63
African-American	22
Hispanic	4
Asian	1
Other	11

Question 5: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?	Virginia Voters
Catholic	29
Protestant/Other Christian	45
Jewish	6
Muslim	2
Other	17

Question 6:  What is your age?	Virginia Voters
18-29	10
30-49	30
50-64	38
65+	22

Question 7: What is your gender?	Virginia Voters
Male	46
Female	54