Saturday, October 20, 2012

Why Colorado Matters


Despite its size (only 9 electoral votes), Colorado could prove to be of key importance in the next Presidential election. This will be especially true if larger swing states like Florida, Virginia, Ohio, etc., don’t decide the matter.

Colorado may not only be a predictor of final election results but an accurate mirror of what is happening in the US—i.e., formerly rural areas are growing at a fast rate and the population is more diverse than ever. Consequently, the conservative roots of Colorado (which helped catapult Bush/Cheney into office) may be weakening.

Then again, a Democrat has won the Presidency in Colorado but twice (Clinton and Obama) in forty years, making Colorado a true, unpredictable “swing” state. For these reasons, it bears watching.

The latest Gravis Marketing Colorado poll also reveals that:
  1. The presidential debate may have helped Obama erode Romney’s previous lead.
  2. The Presidential election is too close to call as of October, 2012.
  3. Although the President leads Romney, he is still facing a rather large (48.6%) disapproval rate; this is in line with a 51.4% “U.S. wrong direction” sentiment.
  4. The rate of undecided voters (5.6%) is too large to ignore; these voters could tilt the results in either direction if present numbers hold true.
  5. Even if he loses in traditionally important states like Florida, Ohio, Virginia, etc., President Obama could still win the election if Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, etc., support him.
  6. What is happening in Colorado may influence other states in Obama's favor.
  7. Obama’s 2.4% lead is dangerously small; a poltical boost (military action) may improve his numbers and a mishap (a scandal) may compromise them—assuming Colorado’s results reflect national tendencies.