Wednesday, November 7, 2012

2012 Polling Results Versus Election Results


The 2012 presidential election results demonstrated the accuracy of the surveys conducted by Gravis Marketing during this election cycle.  All eight of the final presidential election surveys conducted by Gravis Marketing were within five percentage points of the current results and six of the eight surveys were within 2 percentage points of the results.
Across all of the final Gravis Marketing surveys, the average difference from the actual results was only 2 percentage points.
The table below shows the comparison between the Gravis Marketing final polling result and the election results as currently reported.
State
Final Gravis Marketing
Polling Result
Result Based on
Current Vote Counts*
Difference
National
Tie
Obama +2
2
Iowa
Obama +5
Obama +6
1
Pennsylvania
Obama +3
Obama +5
2
New Hampshire
Obama +1
Obama +6
5
Colorado
Obama +3
Obama +5
2
Virginia
Tie
Obama +3
3
Ohio
Obama +1
Obama +2
1
Florida
Tie
Obama +1
1
North Carolina
Romney +4
Romney +2
2
*Source Real Clear Politics
Gravis Marketing has conducted automated public opinion surveys measuring the state of the presidential race since August 2012. All surveys were conducted across a demographically balanced sample of likely voters nationwide and in key battleground states.
Gravis Marketing, Inc. is a non-partisan market research and consulting company. For a list of Gravis Marketing’s services visit www.gravismarketing.com, for past polls www.gravispolls.com, questions or comments contact Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870 or email doug@gravismarketing.com. Gravis is a political marketing company and has recently developed a predictive dialing system.