Friday, November 2, 2012

Final Iowa Public Opinion Poll:2012-President Obama +4


Results from Iowa Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 594 likely voters in Iowa on November 1, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com


Key Findings

·         President Barack Obama leads Governor Mitt Romney by 4 percentage points, 49 to 45 percent.

·         President Obama’s lead is largely driven by early voters. In this poll, President Obama leads Iowa voters by more than 2 to 1, 63 percent to 28 percent with early voters. Mitt Romney leads with likely voters yet to cast their ballots by 12 percentage points, 54 to 42 percent.

·         Iowa voters are nearly equally divided on President Obama’s job performance. 45 percent approve and 46 percent do not approve of the president’s performance.

·         Iowa voters are equally divided on the direction of the country. 45 percent think the country is headed in the right direction and 45 percent also think the country is headed in the wrong direction.


·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Presidential Ballot:
Question 3 & 4 Combined
Early & Likely Voters
Iowa
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Democrat Barack Obama
49
48
50
84
16
38
Republican Mitt Romney
45
47
43
13
84
43
Undecided
6
6
6
3
1
19

Question 5: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
Iowa
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
45
45
44
74
15
38
No
46
50
43
14
82
49
Undecided
9
4
13
12
3
12

Question 6: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
Iowa
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
45
46
43
73
15
39
Wrong Direction
45
50
41
13
82
47
Undecided
10
3
16
14
3
14





Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting

Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which candidate did you already vote for?
Iowa
Voters
Democrat Barack Obama
63
Republican Mitt Romney
28
Rather not say or unsure
10

                                                                                                       
Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
Iowa
Voters
Democrat Barack Obama
42
Republican Mitt Romney
54
Undecided
4




                                                         




Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
            Iowa Voters
Yes
100
No
0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?
            Iowa Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
3
Likely
14
Very likely
                      49                    
Already voted
34
                                                        
Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
           Iowa Voters
Democrat
41
Republican
35
Independent or in another party
24

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?
Iowa Voters
White/Caucasian
90
African-American
3
Hispanic
3
Asian
1
Other
3

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
Iowa Voters
Catholic
30
Protestant/Other Christian
54
Jewish
1
Muslim
1
Other
14

Question 10:  What is your age?
Iowa Voters
18-29
17
30-49
31
50-64
34
65+
18

Question 11: What is your gender?
Iowa Voters
Male
47
Female
53