Final Iowa Public Opinion Poll:2012-President Obama +4

Results from Iowa Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 594 likely voters in Iowa on November 1, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         President Barack Obama leads Governor Mitt Romney by 4 percentage points, 49 to 45 percent.

·         President Obama’s lead is largely driven by early voters. In this poll, President Obama leads Iowa voters by more than 2 to 1, 63 percent to 28 percent with early voters. Mitt Romney leads with likely voters yet to cast their ballots by 12 percentage points, 54 to 42 percent.

·         Iowa voters are nearly equally divided on President Obama’s job performance. 45 percent approve and 46 percent do not approve of the president’s performance.

·         Iowa voters are equally divided on the direction of the country. 45 percent think the country is headed in the right direction and 45 percent also think the country is headed in the wrong direction.

·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Presidential Ballot: Question 3 & 4 Combined Early & Likely Voters	Iowa Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Democrat Barack Obama	49	48	50	84	16	38
Republican Mitt Romney	45	47	43	13	84	43
Undecided	6	6	6	3	1	19

Question 5: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?	Iowa Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Yes	45	45	44	74	15	38
No	46	50	43	14	82	49
Undecided	9	4	13	12	3	12

Question 6: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?	Iowa Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Right Direction	45	46	43	73	15	39
Wrong Direction	45	50	41	13	82	47
Undecided	10	3	16	14	3	14

Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting

Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which candidate did you already vote for?	Iowa Voters
Democrat Barack Obama	63
Republican Mitt Romney	28
Rather not say or unsure	10

                                                                                                       

Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?	Iowa Voters
Democrat Barack Obama	42
Republican Mitt Romney	54
Undecided	4

                                                         

Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?	Iowa Voters
Yes	100
No	0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?	Iowa Voters
Very unlikely	0
Unlikely	0
Somewhat unlikely	0
Somewhat likely	3
Likely	14
Very likely	49
Already voted	34

                                                        

Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]	Iowa Voters
Democrat	41
Republican	35
Independent or in another party	24

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?	Iowa Voters
White/Caucasian	90
African-American	3
Hispanic	3
Asian	1
Other	3

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?	Iowa Voters
Catholic	30
Protestant/Other Christian	54
Jewish	1
Muslim	1
Other	14

Question 10:  What is your age?	Iowa Voters
18-29	17
30-49	31
50-64	34
65+	18

Question 11: What is your gender?	Iowa Voters
Male	47
Female	53