Friday, November 2, 2012

Final Iowa Public Opinion Poll:2012-President Obama +4


Results from Iowa Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 594 likely voters in Iowa on November 1, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com


Key Findings

·         President Barack Obama leads Governor Mitt Romney by 4 percentage points, 49 to 45 percent.

·         President Obama’s lead is largely driven by early voters. In this poll, President Obama leads Iowa voters by more than 2 to 1, 63 percent to 28 percent with early voters. Mitt Romney leads with likely voters yet to cast their ballots by 12 percentage points, 54 to 42 percent.

·         Iowa voters are nearly equally divided on President Obama’s job performance. 45 percent approve and 46 percent do not approve of the president’s performance.

·         Iowa voters are equally divided on the direction of the country. 45 percent think the country is headed in the right direction and 45 percent also think the country is headed in the wrong direction.


·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Presidential Ballot:
Question 3 & 4 Combined
Early & Likely Voters
Iowa
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Democrat Barack Obama
49
48
50
84
16
38
Republican Mitt Romney
45
47
43
13
84
43
Undecided
6
6
6
3
1
19

Question 5: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
Iowa
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
45
45
44
74
15
38
No
46
50
43
14
82
49
Undecided
9
4
13
12
3
12

Question 6: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
Iowa
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
45
46
43
73
15
39
Wrong Direction
45
50
41
13
82
47
Undecided
10
3
16
14
3
14





Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting

Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which candidate did you already vote for?
Iowa
Voters
Democrat Barack Obama
63
Republican Mitt Romney
28
Rather not say or unsure
10

                                                                                                       
Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
Iowa
Voters
Democrat Barack Obama
42
Republican Mitt Romney
54
Undecided
4




                                                         




Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
            Iowa Voters
Yes
100
No
0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?
            Iowa Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
3
Likely
14
Very likely
                      49                    
Already voted
34
                                                        
Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
           Iowa Voters
Democrat
41
Republican
35
Independent or in another party
24

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?
Iowa Voters
White/Caucasian
90
African-American
3
Hispanic
3
Asian
1
Other
3

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
Iowa Voters
Catholic
30
Protestant/Other Christian
54
Jewish
1
Muslim
1
Other
14

Question 10:  What is your age?
Iowa Voters
18-29
17
30-49
31
50-64
34
65+
18

Question 11: What is your gender?
Iowa Voters
Male
47
Female
53
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

25 comments:

  1. A +6 Democrat oversampling leads to a +4 Obama position? Isn't that bad for Obama... that democrats are oversampled, and he isn't winning by at least +6.

    Regardless, why oversample democrats by +6? That is pretty unrealistic.

    We unskew this poll and any other democrat-heavy polls and we store them in our unskewed poll database. Check it out: http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/09/lme-presidential-poll-tracker-database.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UPDATE: Our database has been updated to unskew this poll...

      Delete
  2. Beyond the D+6 sample, which I cannot comment on, the sample has the fraction of 18-29 year old voters roughly equal to the fraction of voters 65 and older. This seems very unlikely to me as younger voters are much less reliable. Moreover, a full 17 percent of the sample say they are only "likely" or "somewhat likely" to vote. I bet Romney holds an even bigger lead than 12 percentage points reported (54-42) if we could see the tally among those "VERY likely" to vote on election day (i.e., those who will actually show up). Translation: Iowa is very much IN PLAY!

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  3. D+6.

    Also early votes are on the secretary of iowa website. They're 43/32/24 for d/r/i. So I don't get 63-28 split from that. Even if every single independent goes obama. So your poll is off.

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  4. The election day numbers for Obama are going to be pretty bad. Remember, he only beat Exxon John by +3 in 2008 on election day, it was early voting that pushed him to such big leads. If Gallup has Obama losing early voting (by 7 I believe), it's lights out early on Tuesday night folks.

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  5. Oversampled Dems by +6 and the results are STILL within the MoE. That fact alone points toward Romney winning Iowa.

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  6. Does it make sense for the fraction of voters aged 18-29 to be equal to those 65 and older? I am not familiar with the demographics of Iowa, but I cannot see how this can be the case, unless there are fewer old folks than I would have thought. I think this must be mistaken and, since older people tend to vote more conservative, I suppose this is as big a problem as the D+6, though it could be the reason why the poll is D+6 (i.e., an oversampling of the young relative to older voters).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That does match the exit polls from 2008

      Delete
    2. Thanks, Roseanne, but I would like to see an Iowa-specific link. If you could provide, that would be great.

      Perhaps more relevantly, 2008 was a different year. Much more youthful enthusiasm; I am a college professor so I remember. I doubt youth turnout will be as high.

      Delete
  7. It's funny that right wingers are completely oblivious to the fact that swing state polls have more Democrats in them for the simple reason that there are more Democrats than there are Republicans. All polls of party ID show Democrats with a significant nationwide advantage on the order of 10 points. It should not surprise anyone, then, that we find more Democrats in swing states. It's not "oversampling", it's the political reality we find ourselves in, and it'll be confirmed in five days.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Even if that is true, party id among "adults" is not the same as likely voter turnout, in a general sense. In this particular poll, I am more concerned that the fraction 18-29 (heavy Obama) is equal to those 65 and older (heavier Romney). Maybe you can rationalize this as well. I am open to reasonable explanations. Also, does it make sense to include those who are "somewhat likely" to vote in the numbers, without also showing them without such uncommitted individuals?

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    2. Levitooker, you are completely wrong. There is no measure out there that shows the layout of party affiliation is represented in these polls. None. The makeup of the electorate with respect to democrat v republican in Iowa, for example 43.5% D, 39.6% R, or D+ 3.9% (54% D oversample) according to Gallup, the most recent data available. This D+6 is not founded in fact.

      When it comes to the polls, however, all recent polls have shown a relative lack of enthusiasm on the left. So even if Iowa is +3.9 D, there is no reason to believe the final turn out will be that.

      If you don't believe me, follow our unskewed poll database. It also has the Gallup party affiliation data for each state: http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/09/lme-presidential-poll-tracker-database.html

      Delete
    3. According to the sec. of state of iowa as of october, the registration was

      795K independent
      694 democrat
      674 republican

      That's 37/32/31 or D+1.

      So much for the "there are so many more democrats than republicans". Actually there are not.

      Delete
    4. As of late 2010, the part affiliation breakdown for the State of Iowa was Republican 32, Democrat 31. This was directly from the SOS website. Unless you think that in the last two years there has been a massive swing to Democrats, whomever is winning the Independent vote in Iowa, will win the state. Since there is absolutely no chance that democrats will turn out a an overwhelming majority to Republicans this year, that most likely means a Romney win.

      Delete
  8. Exactly. And furthermore, one should note that this is just what people choose to identify themselves as when the poll call comes--"Democrat Oversampling"....is really "Republican Undersampling"...which is really "Republican Voters Choosing to Identify themselves as Independents". And given Murdouck, Todd Akin, and Governor Ultrasound over in Virginia, I don't really blame them. The Republican "Undersampling" and Romney's much-vaunted "advantage" among independents are the same, quite unphenomenal phenomena.
    To those would still disagree: Google search "mccain will win" and "democrat oversampling". Both terms, both in separate parentheses. Oh my how history does enjoy repeating. And oh look, Romney's blowing cash in Pennsylvania during the last week of the election, just like Johnny.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. maybe, but there's no evidence of that. It's just a narrative. Gallup and RAsmussen do survey on "party ID" and Rasmussen nailed it both in 2008 and 2010. Gallup was +10 d in 2008 and it came in +7. They both say it's closer to even now, as it was in 2010. So they have some credibility. You have just a story.

      Delete
  9. the party breakdown in IA is pretty even. So it's comical that you're oblivious while calling other people oblivious.

    And the current early vote is on the secretary of state's page BY PARTY. It's hard to mess that up. It's as I said above, dems up by about 12, which a lot less than the 35 or so this pollster gives them.

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  12. This poll is consistent with other polls. The recent Wall Street Journal (owned by Rupert Murdoch) poll has Obama up by 6%. Also, this poll actually UNDERSAMPLES Hispanics. The recent census data for Iowa shows 5.2% Hispanics, and this poll only has 3%. Since Latinos will support Obama 2:1 this election, the poll might actually be underestimating Obama's support. Also, the poll undersamples Asians: 1% versus the census which is 2% for Iowa.

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    Replies
    1. 3% Hispanic and 1% Asian matches exactly the exit polls from 2008 for Iowa.

      Delete
  13. What a joke, D+6. In 2008 CNN exit polls reported a D+1. So this year Obama is going to get 6 times the turnout advantage ? Right. Obama won Indies by 15 in 2008 and is down 5 in this poll. A 20 point drop in Indie support is not a good sign for Obama especially since they were 33% of the vote in 2008 and only 24 in this poll. If you adjust these numbers to 2008 ratios it's close to even, but does anyone think Obama is going to get the turnout he had in 2008 ?

    The real question is whay a poll that adjusts for party would purposefully skew itself so far ? Makes you wonder what else they're doing to make Obama look stronger.

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  14. Exit polling in 2008 had D=34%, R=33%, I=33%
    For 2004 it was D=34%, R=36%, I=30%
    Iowa registration has D=32%, R=31%, I=37%
    This poll has D=42%, R=35%, I=24%. So, one could say that D is way oversampled, R is slightly oversampled, I is way undersampled. Sorry Jesse, your suggestion that R's identified themselves as I's doesn't hold water.
    I know a bit about polling, but not enough to answer which is the more likely scenario to explain the sampling.
    1-The poll sampling had a statistical anomaly.
    2-The pollsters thought that was the best sampling.
    3-The sampled misrepresented themselves.
    4-This is the new truth in the sample.

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  15. It should be a given that youth votes for Obama will be nowhere near what they were in 2008. Plus, if independents break for the challenger as they historically always have, and if some economically disgruntled Obama supporters simply stay home, not only should Iowa go to Romney, but so will Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Ohio. It's the end of an Error!

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  16. One last point: of those who haven't voted yet:

    5% say they are "somewhat likely" to vote (3% of total sample)
    21% say they are "likely" (14% of total sample)
    74% say they are "very likely" to vote (49% of total sample)

    I am kind of suprised that the "somewhat likely" are included. It would be nice to see the election day voting numbers for just the last sample and perhaps some subset of the "likely" category. I bet Romney would be up by more than 12 percentage points in the election day voting as is reported above (54-42). In other words, I think the real margin is closer than 4 percentage points, but we will see on Tuesday.

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