Results
from New Hampshire Likely Voter Survey
Methodology
|
Gravis
Marketing conducted an automated survey of 497 likely voters in New Hampshire
on November 1, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3% and higher
for subgroups.
Results
shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups.
All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest
whole percentage.
The
questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this
report. Results only include respondents
who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very
likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups
for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout
models from previous elections.
The poll
was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a
non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida.
Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com
Key Findings
|
·
Barack Obama has a narrow 1 percentage point
lead over Governor Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, 50 to 49 percent.
·
President Obama has a strong lead with the
limited number of voters that voted early.
·
New Hampshire voters are divided on President
Obama’s job performance. 45 percent
approve of his performance, while 48 percent do not approve of his performance.
·
Similarly, New Hampshire voters are divided on
the direction the country is headed in. 47 percent of New Hampshire voters
think the country is headed in the right direction while 48 percent think the
country is headed in the wrong direction.
·
Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of
the Country
|
Presidential Ballot:
Question 3 & 4 Combined
Early & Likely Voters
|
New
Hampshire
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Democrat
Barack Obama
|
50
|
43
|
55
|
91
|
3
|
48
|
Republican
Mitt Romney
|
49
|
55
|
44
|
9
|
95
|
50
|
Undecided
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
1
|
Question 5: Do you approve of President
Obama’s job performance?
|
New
Hampshire
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Yes
|
45
|
40
|
50
|
83
|
6
|
43
|
No
|
48
|
55
|
42
|
9
|
91
|
50
|
Undecided
|
7
|
5
|
8
|
9
|
4
|
7
|
Question 6: Do you think the United States
of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
|
New
Hampshire
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Right
Direction
|
47
|
39
|
54
|
85
|
5
|
45
|
Wrong
Direction
|
48
|
54
|
43
|
10
|
91
|
50
|
Undecided
|
5
|
7
|
3
|
6
|
4
|
6
|
Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting
|
Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which
candidate did you already vote for?
|
New
Hampshire
Voters
|
|
Democrat
Barack Obama
|
63
|
|
Republican
Mitt Romney
|
37
|
|
Rather
not say or unsure
|
1
|
Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the election
for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
|
New
Hampshire
Voters
|
|
Democrat
Barack Obama
|
49
|
|
Republican
Mitt Romney
|
50
|
|
Undecided
|
1
|
Screeners & Demographics
|
Question 1:
Are you registered to vote?
|
New Hampshire Voters
|
Yes
|
100
|
No
|
0
|
Question 2:
How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?
|
New Hampshire Voters
|
Very
unlikely
|
0
|
Unlikely
|
0
|
Somewhat
unlikely
|
0
|
Somewhat
likely
|
1
|
Likely
|
9
|
Very
likely
|
84
|
Already
voted
|
6
|
Question 7: What is your political party
affiliation? [FIRST TWO CHOICES
ROTATED]
|
New Hampshire Voters
|
Democrat
|
35
|
Republican
|
30
|
Independent
or in another party
|
35
|
Question 8:
What race do you identify yourself as?
|
New Hampshire Voters
|
White/Caucasian
|
93
|
African-American
|
1
|
Hispanic
|
3
|
Asian
|
0
|
Other
|
3
|
Question 9: Which of the following best
represents your religious affiliation?
|
New Hampshire Voters
|
Catholic
|
30
|
Protestant/Other
Christian
|
49
|
Jewish
|
1
|
Muslim
|
1
|
Other
|
19
|
Question 10: What
is your age?
|
New Hampshire Voters
|
18-29
|
10
|
30-49
|
38
|
50-64
|
30
|
65+
|
22
|
Question
11: What is your gender?
|
New
Hampshire Voters
|
Male
|
47
|
Female
|
53
|
