Friday, November 2, 2012

Final New Hampshire Poll-2012



Results from New Hampshire Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 497 likely voters in New Hampshire on November 1, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         Barack Obama has a narrow 1 percentage point lead over Governor Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, 50 to 49 percent.

·         President Obama has a strong lead with the limited number of voters that voted early.

·         New Hampshire voters are divided on President Obama’s job performance.  45 percent approve of his performance, while 48 percent do not approve of his performance.

·         Similarly, New Hampshire voters are divided on the direction the country is headed in. 47 percent of New Hampshire voters think the country is headed in the right direction while 48 percent think the country is headed in the wrong direction.


·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Presidential Ballot:
Question 3 & 4 Combined
Early & Likely Voters
New Hampshire
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Democrat Barack Obama
50
43
55
91
3
48
Republican Mitt Romney
49
55
44
9
95
50
Undecided
1
2
1
0
2
1

Question 5: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
New Hampshire
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
45
40
50
83
6
43
No
48
55
42
9
91
50
Undecided
7
5
8
9
4
7

Question 6: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
New Hampshire
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
47
39
54
85
5
45
Wrong Direction
48
54
43
10
91
50
Undecided
5
7
3
6
4
6





Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting

Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which candidate did you already vote for?
New Hampshire
Voters
Democrat Barack Obama
63
Republican Mitt Romney
37
Rather not say or unsure
1

                                                                                                       
Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
New Hampshire
Voters
Democrat Barack Obama
49
Republican Mitt Romney
50
Undecided
1




                                                         




Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
New Hampshire Voters
Yes
100
No
0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?
New Hampshire Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
1
Likely
9
Very likely
                      84                    
Already voted
6
                                                        
Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
New Hampshire Voters
Democrat
35
Republican
30
Independent or in another party
35

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?
New Hampshire Voters
White/Caucasian
93
African-American
1
Hispanic
3
Asian
0
Other
3

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
New Hampshire Voters
Catholic
30
Protestant/Other Christian
49
Jewish
1
Muslim
1
Other
19

Question 10:  What is your age?
New Hampshire Voters
18-29
10
30-49
38
50-64
30
65+
22

Question 11: What is your gender?
New Hampshire Voters
Male
47
Female
53

6 comments:

  1. Obama leads among early voters? Great.

    Only one thing... NH does not have early voting.
    Care to re-think this stupid poll?

    Source:

    http://www.longdistancevoter.org/early_voting_rules#.UJQ2KWdcWwc

    ReplyDelete
  2. d+5 and romney almost wins? Impressive. It's about even the registration.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The question is "What is your political affiliation?". That is not that the same as party registration. Party affiliation is whatever party people considers themselves to be. A person could be a registered Independent but affiliate herself with the Democrats. I know someone who is a registered Democrat but affiliates himself with Republicans.

      Delete
  3. Some polls, especially in NH, have found a huge "class gap" between Romney and Obama among female voters. Are breakdowns for presidential preference by education or income among women readily available?

    I recall a PPP poll in NH a couple of months ago in which Obama led by 26 among educated women but trailed by 3 among those without college.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If there is ever a state for polls to be wrong, NH is it. NH has a reputation for really burning pollsters.

      Delete