Final New Hampshire Poll-2012

Results from New Hampshire Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 497 likely voters in New Hampshire on November 1, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         Barack Obama has a narrow 1 percentage point lead over Governor Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, 50 to 49 percent.

·         President Obama has a strong lead with the limited number of voters that voted early.

·         New Hampshire voters are divided on President Obama’s job performance.  45 percent approve of his performance, while 48 percent do not approve of his performance.

·         Similarly, New Hampshire voters are divided on the direction the country is headed in. 47 percent of New Hampshire voters think the country is headed in the right direction while 48 percent think the country is headed in the wrong direction.

·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Presidential Ballot: Question 3 & 4 Combined Early & Likely Voters	New Hampshire Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Democrat Barack Obama	50	43	55	91	3	48
Republican Mitt Romney	49	55	44	9	95	50
Undecided	1	2	1	0	2	1

Question 5: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?	New Hampshire Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Yes	45	40	50	83	6	43
No	48	55	42	9	91	50
Undecided	7	5	8	9	4	7

Question 6: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?	New Hampshire Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Right Direction	47	39	54	85	5	45
Wrong Direction	48	54	43	10	91	50
Undecided	5	7	3	6	4	6

Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting

Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which candidate did you already vote for?	New Hampshire Voters
Democrat Barack Obama	63
Republican Mitt Romney	37
Rather not say or unsure	1

                                                                                                       

Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?	New Hampshire Voters
Democrat Barack Obama	49
Republican Mitt Romney	50
Undecided	1

                                                         

Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?	New Hampshire Voters
Yes	100
No	0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?	New Hampshire Voters
Very unlikely	0
Unlikely	0
Somewhat unlikely	0
Somewhat likely	1
Likely	9
Very likely	84
Already voted	6

                                                        

Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]	New Hampshire Voters
Democrat	35
Republican	30
Independent or in another party	35

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?	New Hampshire Voters
White/Caucasian	93
African-American	1
Hispanic	3
Asian	0
Other	3

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?	New Hampshire Voters
Catholic	30
Protestant/Other Christian	49
Jewish	1
Muslim	1
Other	19

Question 10:  What is your age?	New Hampshire Voters
18-29	10
30-49	38
50-64	30
65+	22

Question 11: What is your gender?	New Hampshire Voters
Male	47
Female	53