Monday, November 5, 2012

Final Ohio Poll



Results from Ohio Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated telephone survey of 1316 likely voters in Ohio on November 4-5, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.7% and higher for subgroups. 

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The telephone polls are conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

•    President Obama leads Governor Romney by a single percentage point in Ohio, 49 to 48 percent.

•    President Obama leads with by 13 percentage points over Governor Romney, 55 to 42 percent. Governor Romney leads President Obama, by a three point margin, 50 to 47 percent, among those who have yet to cast a ballot

•    President Obama leads women by 11 percentage points (54 to 43 percent), while Governor Romney leads with men by a 9 point margin (53 to 44 percent).

•    Ohio voters are about equally divided on President Obama’s job performance, 47 percent of Ohio voters approve of his performance, 48 percent of Ohio voters do not approve of his performance.

•    Ohio voters are similarly split on the direction of the country. 46 percent think the country is headed in the right direction while 48 percent of Ohio voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction.


Full Results and Cross Tabs. Gravis Marketing is a political marketing firm, recently developed a predictive dialer system, provides polls and political direct mail services.

10 comments:

  1. Democrat + 8 sample.

    Wow, almost double actual 2008. Actual was 4.5% and the exit polls were d + 7

    So this poll actually dhow Romney up by 2 with Democrat + 4.5 like 2008.

    Doug won't be polling in 2016

    ReplyDelete
  2. You are not making any sense. This is why we think before we speak. Also, even rasmussenreports has already projected Obama will win Ohio. From Ohio: "Forty percent (40%) regestred voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters." So if you can do the math, Romney would have to win almost 80% of the remaining votes to win Ohio. I just don't see that happening.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Son - Where did these numbers come from?? Early votes have not been tallied yet! The only thing that has been disclosed is party registration. 36% of early voters are Dems, and 29% are Republicans. That leaves another 35% independent or unaffiliated, and Romney is leading among these people. It is impossible to have a "60% to37%" figure, so either you have been lied to , or you are a liar.

      Delete
    2. Those votes aren't counted till after the election. So if we're doing some math:
      votes not counted + reports of how those votes will count =
      speculation
      speculation + political climate = b.s.

      Delete
  3. Son-why don't you try to do the math? Your post is so erroneous, though no one should be surprised given your Obama support. First, Rasmussen does not have Obama winning Ohio, as they have it a dead heat. Actually try reading what Rob said. This poll that has Obama up by one HUGELY oversampled Democrats, by a margin greater than 2008. No one in his right mind thinks it will be D + 8. Knock that number down just a couple notches, though the case can be made for more, and Romney wins.

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