Results
from National Likely Voter Survey
|
Methodology
|
Gravis
Marketing conducted an automated survey of 872 likely voters in nationwide on November 3, 2012-November 5, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3% and higher for
subgroups.
Results
shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups.
All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest
whole percentage.
The
questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this
report. Results only include respondents
who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very
likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups
for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout
models from previous elections.
The poll
was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a
non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida.
Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com
|
Key Findings
|
·
President Obama and Governor Romney are in a
dead heat nationwide, each with 48 percent of the vote.
·
President Obama leads by 8 percentage points
(52 to 44 percent) among early voters, while Governor Romney leads President
Obama by 2 percentage points among those who have yet to cast their ballots.
·
46 percent approve of the President’s job
performance, while 49 percent do not approve of the president’s performance.
·
Similarly 45 percent of likely voters
nationwide think the country is headed in the right direction, while 47 percent
think it is headed in the wrong direction.
·
|
Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of
the Country
|
|
Presidential Ballot:
Question 3 & 4 Combined
Early & Likely Voters
|
National
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
|
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
|
Democrat
Barack Obama
|
48
|
47
|
49
|
86
|
12
|
37
|
|
Republican
Mitt Romney
|
48
|
49
|
47
|
12
|
86
|
55
|
|
Undecided
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
8
|
|
Question 5: Do you approve of President
Obama’s job performance?
|
National
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
|
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
|
Yes
|
46
|
45
|
47
|
82
|
10
|
34
|
|
No
|
49
|
52
|
46
|
13
|
84
|
59
|
|
Undecided
|
6
|
4
|
7
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
|
Question 6: Do you think the United States
of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
|
National
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
|
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
|
Right
Direction
|
45
|
43
|
46
|
80
|
11
|
35
|
|
Wrong
Direction
|
47
|
49
|
45
|
13
|
83
|
54
|
|
Undecided
|
8
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
6
|
10
|
|
Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting
|
|
Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which candidate
did you already vote for?
|
National
Voters
|
|
|
Democrat
Barack Obama
|
52
|
|
|
Republican
Mitt Romney
|
44
|
|
|
Rather
not say or unsure
|
4
|
|
Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the
election for President of the United States were held today who would you
vote for?
|
National
Voters
|
|
|
Democrat
Barack Obama
|
47
|
|
|
Republican
Mitt Romney
|
49
|
|
|
Undecided
|
4
|
|
Screeners & Demographics
|
|
Question 1:
Are you registered to vote?
|
National
Voters
|
|
Yes
|
100
|
|
No
|
0
|
|
Question 2:
How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?
|
National
Voters
|
|
Very
unlikely
|
0
|
|
Unlikely
|
0
|
|
Somewhat
unlikely
|
0
|
|
Somewhat
likely
|
3
|
|
Likely
|
10
|
|
Very
likely
|
59
|
|
Already
voted
|
28
|
|
Question 7: What is your political party
affiliation? [FIRST TWO CHOICES
ROTATED]
|
National
Voters
|
|
Democrat
|
40
|
|
Republican
|
32
|
|
Independent
or in another party
|
28
|
|
Question 8:
What race do you identify yourself as?
|
National Voters
|
|
White/Caucasian
|
64
|
|
African-American
|
13
|
|
Hispanic
|
12
|
|
Asian
|
2
|
|
Other
|
8
|
|
Question 9: Which of the following best represents
your religious affiliation?
|
National Voters
|
|
Catholic
|
26
|
|
Protestant/Other
Christian
|
49
|
|
Jewish
|
2
|
|
Muslim
|
1
|
|
Other
|
22
|
|
Question 10: What
is your age?
|
National Voters
|
|
18-29
|
12
|
|
30-49
|
26
|
|
50-64
|
38
|
|
65+
|
24
|
|
Question
11: What is your gender?
|
National
Voters
|
|
Male
|
47
|
|
Female
|
53
|
