Sunday, November 4, 2012

Gravis Marketing National Poll Shows Presidential Race Tied.


Results from National Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 872 likely voters in nationwide on November 3, 2012-November 5, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         President Obama and Governor Romney are in a dead heat nationwide, each with 48 percent of the vote.

·         President Obama leads by 8 percentage points (52 to 44 percent) among early voters, while Governor Romney leads President Obama by 2 percentage points among those who have yet to cast their ballots.

·         46 percent approve of the President’s job performance, while 49 percent do not approve of the president’s performance.

·         Similarly 45 percent of likely voters nationwide think the country is headed in the right direction, while 47 percent think it is headed in the wrong direction.


·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Presidential Ballot:
Question 3 & 4 Combined
Early & Likely Voters
National
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Democrat Barack Obama
48
47
49
86
12
37
Republican Mitt Romney
48
49
47
12
86
55
Undecided
4
4
4
3
2
8

Question 5: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
National
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
46
45
47
82
10
34
No
49
52
46
13
84
59
Undecided
6
4
7
5
6
7

Question 6: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
National
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
45
43
46
80
11
35
Wrong Direction
47
49
45
13
83
54
Undecided
8
7
8
8
6
10
                                                                                                                                           



Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting

Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which candidate did you already vote for?
National
Voters
Democrat Barack Obama
52
Republican Mitt Romney
44
Rather not say or unsure
4

                                                                                                       
Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
National
Voters
Democrat Barack Obama
47
Republican Mitt Romney
49
Undecided
4

                             


Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
        National Voters
Yes
100
No
0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?
        National Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
3
Likely
10
Very likely
59
Already voted
28
Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
        National Voters
Democrat
40
Republican
32
Independent or in another party
28

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?
National Voters
White/Caucasian
64
African-American
13
Hispanic
12
Asian
2
Other
8

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
National Voters
Catholic
26
Protestant/Other Christian
49
Jewish
2
Muslim
1
Other
22

Question 10:  What is your age?
National Voters
18-29
12
30-49
26
50-64
38
65+
24

Question 11: What is your gender?
National Voters
Male
47
Female
53