Gravis Marketing National Poll Shows Presidential Race Tied.

Results from National Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 872 likely voters in nationwide on November 3, 2012-November 5, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         President Obama and Governor Romney are in a dead heat nationwide, each with 48 percent of the vote.

·         President Obama leads by 8 percentage points (52 to 44 percent) among early voters, while Governor Romney leads President Obama by 2 percentage points among those who have yet to cast their ballots.

·         46 percent approve of the President’s job performance, while 49 percent do not approve of the president’s performance.

·         Similarly 45 percent of likely voters nationwide think the country is headed in the right direction, while 47 percent think it is headed in the wrong direction.

·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Presidential Ballot: Question 3 & 4 Combined Early & Likely Voters	National Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Democrat Barack Obama	48	47	49	86	12	37
Republican Mitt Romney	48	49	47	12	86	55
Undecided	4	4	4	3	2	8

Question 5: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?	National Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Yes	46	45	47	82	10	34
No	49	52	46	13	84	59
Undecided	6	4	7	5	6	7

Question 6: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?	National Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Right Direction	45	43	46	80	11	35
Wrong Direction	47	49	45	13	83	54
Undecided	8	7	8	8	6	10

                                                                                                                                           

Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting

Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which candidate did you already vote for?	National Voters
Democrat Barack Obama	52
Republican Mitt Romney	44
Rather not say or unsure	4

                                                                                                       

Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?	National Voters
Democrat Barack Obama	47
Republican Mitt Romney	49
Undecided	4

                             

Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?	National Voters
Yes	100
No	0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?	National Voters
Very unlikely	0
Unlikely	0
Somewhat unlikely	0
Somewhat likely	3
Likely	10
Very likely	59
Already voted	28

Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]	National Voters
Democrat	40
Republican	32
Independent or in another party	28

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?	National Voters
White/Caucasian	64
African-American	13
Hispanic	12
Asian	2
Other	8

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?	National Voters
Catholic	26
Protestant/Other Christian	49
Jewish	2
Muslim	1
Other	22

Question 10:  What is your age?	National Voters
18-29	12
30-49	26
50-64	38
65+	24

Question 11: What is your gender?	National Voters
Male	47
Female	53