Maine CD2 Poll Results...

Results from Maine Congressional District 2 Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 509 likely voters in the second congressional district of Maine on November 1, 2012- November 2, 2012 . The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         President Barack Obama leads Governor Mitt Romney by 3 percentage points in Maine’s second congressional district, 50 to 47 percent.

·         President Obama leads by 11 percentage points,  54 to 43 percent, with independent voters in the second congressional district.

·         Voters in the district are about evenly divided on President Obama’s job performance. 48 percent approve of his performance, while 47 percent do not approve of his performance.

·         Ten percent more voters in the district think the country is headed in the wrong direction (49 percent) than in the right direction (39 percent).

·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Presidential Ballot: Question 3 & 4 Combined Early & Likely Voters	ME2 Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Democrat Barack Obama	50	45	54	84	6	54
Republican Mitt Romney	47	51	44	14	91	43
Undecided	3	4	2	2	3	3

Question 5: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?	ME2 Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Yes	48	45	51	82	8	48
No	47	51	43	14	89	44
Undecided	5	4	7	5	3	8

Question 6: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?	ME2 Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Right Direction	39	38	40	69	8	34
Wrong Direction	49	54	46	14	88	53
Undecided	12	8	15	18	3	13

Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting

Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which candidate did you already vote for?	ME2 Voters
Democrat Barack Obama	46
Republican Mitt Romney	48
Rather not say or unsure	6

                                                                                                       

Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?	ME2 Voters
Democrat Barack Obama	51
Republican Mitt Romney	47
Undecided	2

                                                         

Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?	ME2 Voters
Yes	100
No	0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?	ME2 Voters
Very unlikely	0
Unlikely	0
Somewhat unlikely	0
Somewhat likely	2
Likely	10
Very likely	69
Already voted	19

                                                        

Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]	ME2 Voters
Democrat	38
Republican	31
Independent or in another party	31

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?	ME2 Voters
White/Caucasian	90
African-American	1
Hispanic	4
Asian	1
Other	4

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?	ME2 Voters
Catholic	30
Protestant/Other Christian	49
Jewish	1
Muslim	1
Other	19

Question 10:  What is your age?	ME2 Voters
18-29	10
30-49	35
50-64	37
65+	18

Question 11: What is your gender?	ME2 Voters
Male	47
Female	53