Friday, November 2, 2012

Maine CD2 Poll Results...




Results from Maine Congressional District 2 Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 509 likely voters in the second congressional district of Maine on November 1, 2012- November 2, 2012 . The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         President Barack Obama leads Governor Mitt Romney by 3 percentage points in Maine’s second congressional district, 50 to 47 percent.

·         President Obama leads by 11 percentage points,  54 to 43 percent, with independent voters in the second congressional district.

·         Voters in the district are about evenly divided on President Obama’s job performance. 48 percent approve of his performance, while 47 percent do not approve of his performance.

·         Ten percent more voters in the district think the country is headed in the wrong direction (49 percent) than in the right direction (39 percent).


·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Presidential Ballot:
Question 3 & 4 Combined
Early & Likely Voters
ME2
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Democrat Barack Obama
50
45
54
84
6
54
Republican Mitt Romney
47
51
44
14
91
43
Undecided
3
4
2
2
3
3

Question 5: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
ME2
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
48
45
51
82
8
48
No
47
51
43
14
89
44
Undecided
5
4
7
5
3
8

Question 6: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
ME2
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
39
38
40
69
8
34
Wrong Direction
49
54
46
14
88
53
Undecided
12
8
15
18
3
13





Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting

Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which candidate did you already vote for?
ME2
Voters
Democrat Barack Obama
46
Republican Mitt Romney
48
Rather not say or unsure
6

                                                                                                       
Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
ME2
Voters
Democrat Barack Obama
51
Republican Mitt Romney
47
Undecided
2




                                                         




Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
            ME2 Voters
Yes
100
No
0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?
            ME2 Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
2
Likely
10
Very likely
                      69                    
Already voted
19
                                                        
Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
            ME2 Voters
Democrat
38
Republican
31
Independent or in another party
31

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?
ME2 Voters
White/Caucasian
90
African-American
1
Hispanic
4
Asian
1
Other
4

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
ME2 Voters
Catholic
30
Protestant/Other Christian
49
Jewish
1
Muslim
1
Other
19

Question 10:  What is your age?
ME2 Voters
18-29
10
30-49
35
50-64
37
65+
18

Question 11: What is your gender?
ME2 Voters
Male
47
Female
53
                                                                                                                                                                                   

1 comment:

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