Results
from Maine Congressional District 2 Likely Voter Survey
Methodology
|
Gravis
Marketing conducted an automated survey of 509 likely voters in the second
congressional district of Maine on November 1, 2012- November 2, 2012 . The margin of error for
the survey is +/-4.3% and higher for subgroups.
Results
shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups.
All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest
whole percentage.
The
questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this
report. Results only include respondents
who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very
likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups
for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout
models from previous elections.
The poll
was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a
non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida.
Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com
Key Findings
|
·
President Barack Obama leads Governor Mitt
Romney by 3 percentage points in Maine’s second congressional district, 50 to
47 percent.
·
President Obama leads by 11 percentage
points, 54 to 43 percent, with
independent voters in the second congressional district.
·
Voters in the district are about evenly
divided on President Obama’s job performance. 48 percent approve of his performance,
while 47 percent do not approve of his performance.
·
Ten percent more voters in the district think
the country is headed in the wrong direction (49 percent) than in the right
direction (39 percent).
·
Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of
the Country
|
Presidential Ballot:
Question 3 & 4 Combined
Early & Likely Voters
|
ME2
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Democrat
Barack Obama
|
50
|
45
|
54
|
84
|
6
|
54
|
Republican
Mitt Romney
|
47
|
51
|
44
|
14
|
91
|
43
|
Undecided
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
Question 5: Do you approve of President
Obama’s job performance?
|
ME2
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Yes
|
48
|
45
|
51
|
82
|
8
|
48
|
No
|
47
|
51
|
43
|
14
|
89
|
44
|
Undecided
|
5
|
4
|
7
|
5
|
3
|
8
|
Question 6: Do you think the United States
of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
|
ME2
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Right
Direction
|
39
|
38
|
40
|
69
|
8
|
34
|
Wrong
Direction
|
49
|
54
|
46
|
14
|
88
|
53
|
Undecided
|
12
|
8
|
15
|
18
|
3
|
13
|
Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting
|
Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which
candidate did you already vote for?
|
ME2
Voters
|
|
Democrat
Barack Obama
|
46
|
|
Republican
Mitt Romney
|
48
|
|
Rather
not say or unsure
|
6
|
Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the
election for President of the United States were held today who would you
vote for?
|
ME2
Voters
|
|
Democrat
Barack Obama
|
51
|
|
Republican
Mitt Romney
|
47
|
|
Undecided
|
2
|
Screeners & Demographics
|
Question 1:
Are you registered to vote?
|
ME2
Voters
|
Yes
|
100
|
No
|
0
|
Question 2:
How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?
|
ME2
Voters
|
Very
unlikely
|
0
|
Unlikely
|
0
|
Somewhat
unlikely
|
0
|
Somewhat
likely
|
2
|
Likely
|
10
|
Very
likely
|
69
|
Already
voted
|
19
|
Question 7: What is your political party
affiliation? [FIRST TWO CHOICES
ROTATED]
|
ME2
Voters
|
Democrat
|
38
|
Republican
|
31
|
Independent
or in another party
|
31
|
Question 8:
What race do you identify yourself as?
|
ME2 Voters
|
White/Caucasian
|
90
|
African-American
|
1
|
Hispanic
|
4
|
Asian
|
1
|
Other
|
4
|
Question 9: Which of the following best
represents your religious affiliation?
|
ME2 Voters
|
Catholic
|
30
|
Protestant/Other
Christian
|
49
|
Jewish
|
1
|
Muslim
|
1
|
Other
|
19
|
Question 10: What
is your age?
|
ME2 Voters
|
18-29
|
10
|
30-49
|
35
|
50-64
|
37
|
65+
|
18
|
Question 11: What is your gender?
|
ME2 Voters
|
Male
|
47
|
Female
|
53
|
