Methodology
|
Gravis
Marketing conducted an automated survey of 1130 likely voters in North Carolina
on November 4, 2012- November 5, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9% and higher
for subgroups.
Results
shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups.
All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest
whole percentage.
The
questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this
report. Results only include respondents
who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very
likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups
for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout
models from previous elections.
The poll
was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a
non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida.
Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com
Key Findings
|
·
Governor Romney leads President Obama by 4
percentage points in North Carolina, 50 to 46 percent.
·
President Obama leads by 2 percentage points (49
to 47 percent) among early voters in North Carolina, while Governor Romney
leads President Obama by 10 percentage points among those who have yet to cast
their ballots, 53 to 43 percent.
·
Half of North Carolina voters (50 percent) do
not approve of President Obama’s performance, while 6 percent fewer (44
percent) approve of his performance.
·
44 percent of likely voters in North Carolina
think the country is headed in the right direction, while 48 percent think it
is headed in the wrong direction.
Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of
the Country
|
Presidential Ballot:
Question 3 & 4 Combined
Early & Likely Voters
|
North
Carolina
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Democrat
Barack Obama
|
46
|
44
|
47
|
78
|
12
|
41
|
Republican
Mitt Romney
|
50
|
52
|
49
|
19
|
86
|
51
|
Undecided
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
7
|
Question 5: Do you approve of President
Obama’s job performance?
|
North
Carolina
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Yes
|
44
|
43
|
46
|
77
|
13
|
37
|
No
|
50
|
52
|
48
|
19
|
83
|
54
|
Undecided
|
6
|
5
|
6
|
4
|
5
|
9
|
Question 6: Do you think the United States
of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
|
North
Carolina
Voters
|
Gender
|
Party
|
|||
Men
|
Women
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Independent
|
||
Right
Direction
|
44
|
44
|
43
|
74
|
14
|
37
|
Wrong
Direction
|
48
|
50
|
47
|
19
|
79
|
53
|
Undecided
|
8
|
6
|
10
|
7
|
7
|
10
|
Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting
|
Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which
candidate did you already vote for?
|
North
Carolina
Voters
|
|
Democrat
Barack Obama
|
49
|
|
Republican
Mitt Romney
|
47
|
|
Rather
not say or unsure
|
4
|
Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the
election for President of the United States were held today who would you
vote for?
|
North
Carolina
Voters
|
|
Democrat
Barack Obama
|
43
|
|
Republican
Mitt Romney
|
53
|
|
Undecided
|
4
|
Screeners & Demographics
|
Question 1:
Are you registered to vote?
|
North Carolina Voters
|
Yes
|
100
|
No
|
0
|
Question 2:
How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?
|
North Carolina Voters
|
Very
unlikely
|
0
|
Unlikely
|
0
|
Somewhat
unlikely
|
0
|
Somewhat
likely
|
2
|
Likely
|
9
|
Very
likely
|
27
|
Already
voted
|
52
|
Question 7: What is your political party
affiliation? [FIRST TWO CHOICES
ROTATED]
|
North Carolina Voters
|
Democrat
|
39
|
Republican
|
34
|
Independent
or in another party
|
27
|
Question 8:
What race do you identify yourself as?
|
North Carolina Voters
|
White/Caucasian
|
68
|
African-American
|
25
|
Hispanic
|
3
|
Asian
|
1
|
Other
|
3
|
Question 9: Which of the following best
represents your religious affiliation?
|
North Carolina Voters
|
Catholic
|
12
|
Protestant/Other
Christian
|
59
|
Jewish
|
3
|
Muslim
|
3
|
Other
|
23
|
Question 10: What
is your age?
|
North Carolina Voters
|
18-29
|
8
|
30-49
|
38
|
50-64
|
32
|
65+
|
22
|
Question
11: What is your gender?
|
North
Carolina Voters
|
Male
|
46
|
Female
|
54
|
