Final North Carolina Presidential Poll Shows...

Results from North Carolina Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 1130 likely voters in North Carolina on November 4, 2012- November 5, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         Governor Romney leads President Obama by 4 percentage points in North Carolina, 50 to 46 percent.

·         President Obama leads by 2 percentage points (49 to 47 percent) among early voters in North Carolina, while Governor Romney leads President Obama by 10 percentage points among those who have yet to cast their ballots, 53 to 43 percent.

·         Half of North Carolina voters (50 percent) do not approve of President Obama’s performance, while 6 percent fewer (44 percent) approve of his performance.

·         44 percent of likely voters in North Carolina think the country is headed in the right direction, while 48 percent think it is headed in the wrong direction.

·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Presidential Ballot: Question 3 & 4 Combined Early & Likely Voters	North Carolina Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Democrat Barack Obama	46	44	47	78	12	41
Republican Mitt Romney	50	52	49	19	86	51
Undecided	4	4	4	3	2	7

Question 5: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?	North Carolina Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Yes	44	43	46	77	13	37
No	50	52	48	19	83	54
Undecided	6	5	6	4	5	9

Question 6: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?	North Carolina Voters	Gender		Party
		Men	Women	Democrat	Republican	Independent
Right Direction	44	44	43	74	14	37
Wrong Direction	48	50	47	19	79	53
Undecided	8	6	10	7	7	10

                                                                                                                                           

Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting

Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which candidate did you already vote for?	North Carolina Voters
Democrat Barack Obama	49
Republican Mitt Romney	47
Rather not say or unsure	4

                                                                                                       

Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?	North Carolina Voters
Democrat Barack Obama	43
Republican Mitt Romney	53
Undecided	4

                                                         

Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?	North Carolina Voters
Yes	100
No	0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?	North Carolina  Voters
Very unlikely	0
Unlikely	0
Somewhat unlikely	0
Somewhat likely	2
Likely	9
Very likely	27
Already voted	52

                                                        

Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]	North Carolina Voters
Democrat	39
Republican	34
Independent or in another party	27

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?	North Carolina Voters
White/Caucasian	68
African-American	25
Hispanic	3
Asian	1
Other	3

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?	North Carolina Voters
Catholic	12
Protestant/Other Christian	59
Jewish	3
Muslim	3
Other	23

Question 10:  What is your age?	North Carolina Voters
18-29	8
30-49	38
50-64	32
65+	22

Question 11: What is your gender?	North Carolina Voters
Male	46
Female	54