Sunday, November 4, 2012

Final North Carolina Presidential Poll Shows...



Results from North Carolina Likely Voter Survey

Methodology

Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 1130 likely voters in North Carolina on November 4, 2012- November 5, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9% and higher for subgroups.  

Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within those subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report.  Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models from previous elections.

The poll was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing, Inc., Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com

Key Findings

·         Governor Romney leads President Obama by 4 percentage points in North Carolina, 50 to 46 percent.

·         President Obama leads by 2 percentage points (49 to 47 percent) among early voters in North Carolina, while Governor Romney leads President Obama by 10 percentage points among those who have yet to cast their ballots, 53 to 43 percent.

·         Half of North Carolina voters (50 percent) do not approve of President Obama’s performance, while 6 percent fewer (44 percent) approve of his performance.

·         44 percent of likely voters in North Carolina think the country is headed in the right direction, while 48 percent think it is headed in the wrong direction.



·          

Ballot, Job Performance & Direction of the Country

Presidential Ballot:
Question 3 & 4 Combined
Early & Likely Voters
North Carolina
Voters
Gender
Party
Men

Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Democrat Barack Obama
46
44
47
78
12
41
Republican Mitt Romney
50
52
49
19
86
51
Undecided
4
4
4
3
2
7

Question 5: Do you approve of President Obama’s job performance?
North Carolina
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Yes
44
43
46
77
13
37
No
50
52
48
19
83
54
Undecided
6
5
6
4
5
9

Question 6: Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
North Carolina
Voters
Gender
Party
Men
Women
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Right Direction
44
44
43
74
14
37
Wrong Direction
48
50
47
19
79
53
Undecided
8
6
10
7
7
10
                                                                                                                                           




Early Vs. Likely Vote Balloting

Question 3: EARLY VOTERS ONLY: Which candidate did you already vote for?
North Carolina
Voters
Democrat Barack Obama
49
Republican Mitt Romney
47
Rather not say or unsure
4

                                                                                                       
Question 4: DID NOT VOTE YET: If the election for President of the United States were held today who would you vote for?
North Carolina
Voters
Democrat Barack Obama
43
Republican Mitt Romney
53
Undecided
4




                                                         




Screeners & Demographics

Question 1:  Are you registered to vote?
North Carolina Voters
Yes
100
No
0

Question 2:  How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential election?
North Carolina  Voters
Very unlikely
0
Unlikely
0
Somewhat unlikely
0
Somewhat likely
2
Likely
9
Very likely
27
Already voted
52
                                                        
Question 7: What is your political party affiliation?         [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]
North Carolina Voters
Democrat
39
Republican
34
Independent or in another party
27

Question 8:  What race do you identify yourself as?
North Carolina Voters
White/Caucasian
68
African-American
25
Hispanic
3
Asian
1
Other
3

Question 9: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
North Carolina Voters
Catholic
12
Protestant/Other Christian
59
Jewish
3
Muslim
3
Other
23


Question 10:  What is your age?
North Carolina Voters
18-29
8
30-49
38
50-64
32
65+
22

Question 11: What is your gender?
North Carolina Voters
Male
46
Female
54