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Showing posts from October 20, 2012

Poll Averages

Some have said that Gravis Marketing has been putting out pro Romney public opinion polls. Here are the actual results from Real Clear Politics Colorado PPP (D) 10/16 - 10/18 1000 LV 3.1 47 50 Obama +3 WeAskAmerica 10/15 - 10/15 1206 LV 2.9 48 47 Romney +1 Denver Post/SurveyUSA 10/9 - 10/10 614 LV 4.0 48 47 Romney +1 Gravis Marketing 10/5 - 10/11 2089 LV 2.2 46 48 Obama +2 Florida RCP Average 10/7 - 10/18 -- -- 49.3 46.9 Romney +2.4 Rasmussen Reports 10/18 - 10/18 750 LV 4.0 51 46 Romney +5 CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/18 681 LV 4.0 49 48 Romney +1 Gravis Marketing 10/13 - 10/14 617 LV 4.0 49 48 Romney +1 Nevada Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread RCP Average 10/6 - 10/15 -- -- 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0 Rasmussen Reports 10/15 - 10/15 500 LV 4.5 50 47 Obama +3 LVRJ/SurveyUSA 10/11 - 10/15 806 LV 3.5 48 45 Obama +3 Suffolk/KSNV 10/6 - 10/9 500 LV 4.4 47 45 Obama +2 PPP (D) 10/8 - 10/10 594 LV 4.0 51 47 Obama +4 Rasmussen Reports 10/8 - 10/8 500 LV 4.5 4

Why Colorado Matters

Despite its size (only 9 electoral votes), Colorado could prove to be of key importance in the next Presidential election. This will be especially true if  larger swing states  like Florida, Virginia, Ohio, etc., don’t decide the matter. Colorado may not only be a predictor of final election results but an accurate mirror of what is happening in the US—i.e., formerly rural areas are growing at a fast rate and the population is more diverse than ever. Consequently, the conservative roots of Colorado (which helped catapult Bush/Cheney into office) may be weakening. Then again, a Democrat has won the Presidency in Colorado but twice ( Clinton and Obama ) in forty years, making Colorado a true, unpredictable “swing” state. For these reasons, it bears watching. The latest  Gravis Marketing Colorado poll  also reveals that: The presidential debate may have helped Obama erode Romney’s previous lead. The Presidential election is too close to call as of October, 2012. Although

Gravis Ohio Poll Shows...

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Results from Ohio Likely Voter Survey Key Findings ·         President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in the key battleground state of Ohio. ·         Romney leads by 6 percentage points among men (50 to 44 percent), while Obama leads by 4 percentage points among women (49 to 45 percent). ·         Both sides are doing well to consolidate their bases in Ohio. 87 percent of Democrats say they will vote for President Obama and 92 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Governor Romney if the election were held today. Governor Romney leads with independents 52 to 33 percent. ·         The president has a net negative job approval rating of 6 points, 44 percent approve of President Obama’s job performance while 50 percent do not. ·         Ohio voters are more likely by a 6 percentage point margin to think the country is going in the wrong direction (49 percent) than in the right direction (43 percent). Previous Gravis October Ohio poll,